Below is a continuing diary of notes on developments insofar as market behaviour is concerned that I think are relevant to the progress of the stock market as represented by the S&P 100 Index . I’ll point out these signposts as we move along the Market's Way. Please call me at 416-463-6880 if you have any questions or in need of clarification . Tom

Elliott Wave Terms A) Impulse wave= a wave in direction of Primary Wave. B) Corrective wave= a wave in opposite direction of Primary Wave.1) Primary wave: a full bull market or bear market, 2) Intermediate wave: waves within a Primary Wave, 3) Minor wave: waves within an Intermediate wave, 4) Minute wave: waves within a minor wave, 5) Minuette wave, waves within a minute wave.

* To see all my weekly charts visit: http://www.tomrogers.net/mkt_view.htm and click through each of the 4 blue icon boxes.

see also my monthly Canadian Buy List at http://www.tomrogers.net/buylist.htm and full website at http://www.tomrogers.net

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Special Signpost: Aug 30/10, Expected: 1) I have revised the Elliott Wave Short Term Daily Count to recognize count of 4th minute (sub) wave of the current abc corrective of 1st minor wave of 3rd Intermediate wave of new bull market. and the 5th minute (sub) wave appears now in play. It is quite likely the critical level of 464 on the market index we are following, the OEX, and the 1022 level of the S&P 100 Index will be penetrated, if not on this 'a' portion of the abc corrective then almost certainly on the 'c' wave portion when it comes. In such event a 'recount' will be necessary which as of now would not change the outlook for a major low toward the end of September or possibly somewhat beyond. For now, once this 5th minute (sub) wave of 'a' is in, expect a probable quick 3 step rally to bring in the 'b' wave of the current abc corrective. Once the 'b' wave is in expect 5 minute (sub) waves of the declining 'c' wave portion of the abc corrective to come in.

2) I will be visiting my daughter, Laura Anne, her husband, Randy and grandson Cole in Ottawa over the long weekend and consequently will not provide a 'Signpost' for week ending Sept 3rd.

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Signpost: Aug 27/10, Expected: On balance since last week we've had a brief rebound with brief decline and now, perhaps, a decent rebound rally has begun after which expect a strong decline to complete the correction that must hold above 464 on the S&P 100 index we're following and correspondingly 1022 on the S&P 500 index , or else, a more severe corrective will be encountered and a 're-count ' will be necessary. We are on the way to low in September/October as forecast by Seasonal and Cycle analysts. Accordingly, cash retention is advised until support levels emerge for purchase candidates of interest during the corrective phase we are now in.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles down trend continues . Daily Candles, probable reversal to upside now evident . Western Bar Chart right shoulder of bullish head & shoulders reversal could now be in. Advance Decline in line with market index . Weekly Energy is in avoid zone . Daily Energy in short term buy and medium term avoid. Weekly Momentum in full buy mode from oversold level. Daily Momentum now attempting to turn up from oversold level. MZM liquid money supply now reversed to upside from within negative territory . Coppock Curve Monthly first peak is in with valley awaited . Weekly Bonds reliable 'shooting star' candlestick reversal has come in. 3 bond charts to for clear perspective and note weekly basis bond market sell signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator portending coming weakness and RS Trading Oscillator at 'Uptrend Oscillator sell line'.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count 'abc' corrective to 1st minor wave of 3rd Intermediate wave of new bull market underway with 'a' wave complete composed of 5 minute (sub) waves and 'b' wave now begun? Trend Sector Channels shows completed 'a' wave of abs corrective as i.3.2a with 'b' (up) and 'c' (down) yet to come. Short Term Daily Count - Wave 'a' of abc corrective in and 'b' commenced. That 'a' is composed of 5 minute (sub) waves implies this abc corrective will be a Zigzag style pattern with completion at a low below termination of wave 'a' and possibly below commencement of 1st minor wave of Intermediate wave 3 and hence demanding a 'new count'. Elliott Weekly Count - in tune with corrective of Daily count . Tom, 416-463-6880

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*--- To click through all Elliott Wave charts with their individual commentaries begin at Trend Sector Channels .

To see all my charts visit: http://www.tomrogers.net/mkt_view.htm and click through each of the 4 blue icon boxes. ---*

* A Note on Seasonality in the Stock Market: It has been well documented that there are seasonal influences which tend to affect Stock Market behaviour as well as industrial sectors within the market itself. Canadian Advisor, Brooke Thackray,MBA,CIM,CFP president of AlphaMountain Investments produces a 'free' monthly letter with specific updates and commentary; subscribe at Thackray Market Letter. See past letters. Yearly, he also publishes a 12 month by month seasonality forecast which many consider to be the 'bible' on the subject. Click for a highlight of the subject matter covered by "Thackray's 2010 Investment Guide" . The book is available for a very modest price at Amazon.Com: and ChaptersIndigo.ca . You can also see a live example of the structuring and trading of Exchange Traded Funds on a seasonal basis within the new Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF, TSX symbol: HAC, managed by Brooke and renowned Canadian seasonality expert, Don Vialoux. who regularly includes seasonal strength appraisals in the course of his comprehensive daily analysis in 'Tech Talk' at ' timingthemarket.ca ' . Additionally Don offers an in-depth explanation of Seasonal investing in Special Report 5 on his Education Page as well as a interesting seasonality comments he's made in National Post, see Publications.

Note: The weekly update of "Signpost along the market's way" is now available on my website via a link from 'My Weekly Market View'

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Signpost: Aug 22/10, Expected: On balance I look for a) a brief rebound with brief decline and then a decent rebound rally, or b) a decent rebound right away. In either case after the decent rebound expect a strong decline to complete the correction that must hold above 464 on the S&P 100 index we're following and correspondingly 1022 on the S&P 500 index , or else, a more severe corrective will be encountered and a 're-count will be necessary. We are on the way to low in September/October as forecast by Seasonal and Cycle analysts. Accordingly, cash retention is advised until support levels emerge for purchase candidates of interest during the corrective phase we are now in.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles shows a new sell signal . Daily Candles, in sell mode as well. Western Bar Chart entering lower area of trading range, possibly putting in a right shoulder of a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal. Advance Decline not as weak as market index. Weekly Energy reflecting short term strength just past. Daily Energy is very weak. Weekly Momentum oversold 'buy' mode still intact . Daily Momentum continues in full scale 'sell' mode. MZM liquid money supply now turning up with 'blue' line's strength a positive implication for stock market. Coppock Curve Monthly first peak is in with valley awaited . Weekly Bonds strong up trend continues but is way way over extended. Click through 3 bond charts to for clear perspective and note weekly basis bond market sell signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator portending coming weakness and RS Trading Oscillator almost at 'Uptrend Oscillator sell line'.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count shows Intermediate term wave 2 corrective in at 'R2' with 1st minor wave of Intermediate Term impulse wave 3 complete awaiting 3 wave corrective now in play that must stay above 'R2' for current count to hold. Trend Sector Channels now in an 'abc' corrective mode with 3 sub waves (of possible 5, refer corrective wave patterns) may be in of 'a' wave with 'b' (up) and 'c' (down) yet to come. Short Term Daily Count - 3 waves of 'a' of abc corrective may now be in but 'a' can have 5 minute waves before 'b' (up) wave portion of abc corrective begins. Elliott Weekly Count - in tune with corrective of Daily count having slid into 5th wave of 1st minor wave of Intermediate impulse wave 3 of new bull market. Tom, 416-463-6880

Signpost: Aug 15/10, Expected: On balance I look for weakness to continue this week with a rebound attempt perhaps later in the week. Nevertheless the market correction is now well under way with a normal bounce expected prior to a final decline then to complete. The 'correction' as such must hold above 464 on the S&P 100 index we're following and correspondingly 1022 on the S&P 500 index (barring allowance for short term penetration then reversal as illustrated by an irregular correction as in 'irregular' corrective) We are on the way to low in September/October as forecast by Seasonal and Cycle analysts. Accordingly, cash retention is advised until support levels emerge for purchase candidates of interest during the corrective phase we are now in.

Beyond the Wave , look at....Weekly Candles show 'Engulfing' sell signal rendered. Daily Candles, Breakdown from 'Dumpling Top' confirmed. Western Bar Chart Failure of 'Head & Shoulder' reversal seems apparent, but right shoulder may yet evolve with more pattern definition. Advance Decline up trend broken along with market index. Weekly Energy short term 'buy' possible but medium term in avoid mode. Daily Energy in sell mode for both short and medium term. Weekly Momentum with oversold buy signal awaiting confirmation by other indicators. Daily Momentum is in full scale 'sell' mode . MZM liquid money supply positive influence of emerging money supply strength deserves recognition. Coppock Curve Monthly first peak is in with valley awaited . Weekly Bonds show strong up trend continues but is way way over extended. Click through 3 bond charts to for clear perspective and note weekly basis bond market sell signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator portending coming weakness. .

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count shows Intermediate term wave 2 corrective in at 'R2' with 1st minor wave of Intermediate Term wave 3 complete awaiting 3 wave corrective now in play that must hold above 'R2' unless it will complete as an 'irregular' corrective. Trend Sector Channels shows 1st wave of 3rd Intermediate wave now in. Short Term Daily Count suggests 1st wave of 3 step corrective unfolding normally. Elliott Weekly Count has entered corrective mode without showing expected 5 waves of 1st wave of Intermediate impulse up wave 3.

Signpost: Aug 8/10, Expected: Looking at Long term market appearance from October of '07 we see a rolling over of the advance since March of '09 from beneath a declining 200 week moving average which is not encouraging. Shorter term we see an unconfirmed potential reversal being put in last week on the daily chart. From an Elliott wave perspective the latest minute wave, wave 5, was shorter than minute wave 3 such that minute wave 3 conforms as not being the shortest within the 5 wave sequence comprising Minor wave 1, being the 1st minor wave of Intermediate wave 3 of the new bull market. Giving recognition as well to the non-existent follow through of the break above the 200 day moving average and the 'would be' head and shoulders reversal pattern on Monday, all leads to one concluding the corrective decline should begin this week rather than the rally continuing onwards in an extension with a typical 6 more minute waves. Accordingly, cash retention is advised until support levels emerge for purchase candidates of interest during the oncoming corrective phase.

Beyond the Wave , look at....Weekly Candles show rally intact. Daily Candles, look toppy with possible reversal in place. Western Bar Chart , poor follow through on breakout over neckline, but up trend still holds. Advance Decline at April high showing very positive divergence from market index but well over bought. Weekly Energy in short term buy mode, but medium term in avoid position Daily Energy in short term hold, medium term sell. Weekly Momentum now giving buy indication from very oversold level which is positive, however. Daily Momentum is somewhat overbought and on verge of turning down. MZM liquid money supply shows pause in its strong bullish reversal. Coppock Curve Monthly appears to have put in its first peak. Weekly Bonds show strong up trend continues but way over extended. Click through 3 bond charts to for clear perspective and note weekly basis bond market sell signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count shows Intermediate term wave 2 corrective complete and first minor wave of Intermediate wave 3 underway - but possibly complete. Trend Sector Channels shows 1st minor wave intact, but in jeopardy, with required 5 minute waves in for completion. Short Term Daily Count shows 1st minor wave of Intermediate wave 3 complete unless a 6 wave extension comes into play which is considered unlikely. Elliott Weekly Count confirms 1st minor wave of Intermediate wave 3 of new bull market is in place.

Signpost: Aug 1/10, Expected: I believe one more short term rally may occur this week to then transition into a full scale correction into late September as predicted by analysts using cycle analysis and those following 'seasonal' market trends. A strategy in such circumstance suggests accumulation at support levels for individual equities as correction moves into an advanced stage in the weeks ahead.

Beyond the Wave , look at....Weekly Candles unconvincing follow through to last week's strength. Daily Candles, reversal of up trend may be indicated. Western Bar Chart Head & Shoulders bullish reversal pattern now quite apparent. Advance Decline is nearly back to April high which is deemed very positive.endorsing market's upside attempt. Weekly Energy short term strength continues Daily Energy continues in full buy mode. Weekly Momentum in process of reversing from depressed level. Daily Momentum downside reversal now in place. MZM liquid money supply turning up with strong 'blue' line lead eliciting positive market response Click through 3 bond charts to see evident downside reversal apparently voided by Friday's strength. Note weekly basis bond market sell signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count indicates completion of 2nd Intermediate corrective wave and commencement of impulse Intermediate up wave 3 of new bull market. Trend Sector Channels shows completion of 2nd Intermediate corrective wave at 'R2' and shows first minor wave within 3rd Intermediate wave of new bull market unfolding with third 'minute' wave now in. Short Term Daily Count shows first minor wave of 3rd Intermediate now putting in 4th minute wave with 5th minute wave then to follow? - to complete 1st minor wave of 3rd Intermediate wave with 2nd minor wave , a corrective down wave , then to unfold, which must hold above 'R2' at [C] to validate this interpretation. Elliott Weekly Count shows confirmation of completion of Intermediate Wave 2 corrective and that 3rd Intermediate (up) wave has begun with its 1st minor wave well underway.

Signpost: July 25/10, Expected: Recount of Elliott Wave configuration indicates Intermediate Term correction ended July 2 and new Intermediate up trend commenced. . Overhead resistance for curent strength is at 505 about 1% higher than current 500 level for the S&P 100 index followed in this analysis. Prudent strategy is to await pull back to buy on weakness.

( I feel I must apologize for this change in expectation owing to correction of a prior counting error on my part; an error, which I don't believe is uncommon for Elliott Wave practitioners wherein sometimes a predilection for a pattern to occur results in an 'erroneous' count that seems to fit. This I've 'dubbed' as a "countafit" count which I'll take care to avoid in the future. Sincerely, Tom )

Beyond the Wave , look at....Weekly Candles reversal of down trend appears underway. Daily Candles reversal now at a point of resistance or hesitation. Western Bar Chart Head & Shoulders bullish reversal pattern now quite apparent. Advance Decline shows upside breakout by A/D line to indicate good internal market strength endorsing market's upside attempt. Weekly Energy showing shift to strength Daily Energy in full buy mode. Weekly Momentum is very oversold showing initial attempt at strength. Daily Momentum now entering over bought territory suggesting short term weakness not far off. MZM liquid money supply suggests strong reversal of poor liquidity underway. Blue line suggests shift to market strength at hand. Click through 3 bond charts to see evident downside reversal begun. Note sell signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator. Weakness in bonds can indicate stock market strength as funds move out of bonds to more risky assets..

Signpost: July 18/10, Expected: Having emphatically broken important support levels there followed a rebound rally which appears now over indicating real weakness is likely over next few weeks, or so. Fibonacci downside targets at 436 and 406 readable for S&P100 (The OEX which this study follows.) For Dow Jones: 9428, 8881, 8335, S&P/TSX60 (TXLX): 619, 587, 556, S&P/TSX Composite: 10497, 9928, 9359 are potential downside limits for these indexes too.

Beyond the Wave , look at....Weekly Candles closed down, in 'non-confirmation' of prior week's buy indication. Daily Candles show '8 to 10 new records' sell signal with confirmation by Friday's 'Marubozu of Yin' pattern. Western Bar Chart shows breakdown of two up trend attempts. Weekly Energy remains in 'avoid' mode despite Daily Energy's recent strength. Weekly Momentum continues down, now moving into oversold territory. Daily Momentum remains in 'buy' mode as it recovers out of oversold level. MZM liquid money supply while still in -1% annual rate of change reading, is leveling out after long decline. Blue line suggests continued weakness for a while, then a strong market to come. Click through 3 bond charts to see recovered strength, possibly forming a 'double top'.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count shows 2nd Intermediate Corrective still in play as illustrated by Trend Sector Channels showing completion of wave 2 of a 5 wave predicted sequence and now entering 3rd wave - as further illustrated in depth buy Short Term Daily Count . Confirmation of continuing Intermediate wave 2 corrective seems evident in Elliott Weekly Count as well.

Signpost: July 11/10, Expected: The market did proceed to emphatically break important support levels. The rebound rally had poor follow through indicating real weakness is very likely over next few weeks, or so, with Fibonacci downside targets at 436 and 406 readable for S&P100, Dow Jones - 9428, 8881, 8335, S&P/TSX60 (TXLX) - 619, 587, 556, S&P/TSX Composite - 10497, 9928, 9359.

Before Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles shows significant 'price' strength overcoming poor performance of prior week. Daily Candles showing weak response to July 7 low volume rally. Western Bar Chart clear break of important support line with rebound likely to be misleading. Advance Decline digesting apparent weakness nicely. Weekly Energy still in 'avoid' mode. Daily Energy recognizing last week's short term strength . Weekly Momentum in a clear decline at an only mildly oversold level. Daily Momentum attempting a recovery out of oversold level . MZM liquid money supply While still in -1% annual rate of change reading, is leveling out after long decline. Blue line suggests continued weakness for a while, then a strong market to come. Click through 3 bond charts to see topping out of Bond market happening .

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count shows 2nd Intermediate Corrective still in play due to break of ‘support level’. Trend Sector Channels shows decline below wave 5 to trigger extension waves peaking at R2 (second retracement) and launch of probable 5 wave decline of significance. Short Term Daily Count shows extended 5 wave count with significant downside potential. Elliott Weekly Count calls for continued decline with next down wave still to come.

Signpost: June 27/10, Expected: On a short term basis over coming few days, market is somewhat oversold and thus has rally potential. Nevertheless, possibility for more extensive decline in current declining trend is quite serious and eventual danger of decline through low of June 7 is still very real. On Elliott Wave basis it would be entirely normal to have a short term rally followed be another short term decline such as we have just witnessed. We'd want to see any such decline hold above low of 476.87 of June 7 as noted, otherwise Fibonacci targets of 463 and 436 become open.

Holiday Reminder: as mentioned in my e-mail of June 23rd I will be on vacation July 1 to return July 12 and will publish my next "Signpost" on July 18.

Before Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles assert down trend has now resumed. Daily Candles portray corrective down trend at 'support' within extensive base formation. Advance Decline suggests strength may re-assert. Weekly Energy still in 'avoid' status. Daily Energy shows as 'fading'. Weekly Momentum is on way to being 'oversold'. Daily Momentum has now entered sell mode. MZM liquid money supply has turned up with 'blue' line momentum indicating market strength soon to come.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count shows 1st wave if Intermediate wave 3 (up) now correcting. Trend Sector Channels imply correction within Intermediate wave 3, wave 1,as possibly complete. Short Term Daily Count contends correction of 1st wave of intermediate wave 3 (up) is now underway, and in danger of trend failure. Elliott Weekly Count counting Intermediate wave II of new bull market as possibly in , but open to alternative allowance for a final wave to come to complete 'c' wave of the abc corrective.

Signpost: June 20/10, Expected: All in all there is a good chance the new rally will continue, however for the moment, it is open to a short term correction (pull back) to test its strength. It is considered key that market hold above or only slightly below low of June 7 (476.87) as a successful test before rally resumes upside move - for which 'permission' has been granted by recent chart action and the improved monetary momentum.

Before Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles show rally attempt in play. Daily Candles show early hesitation on move out of base formation. Western Bar Chart shows breakout from down trend. Advance Decline Line shows clear internal market strength and better than market index. Weekly Energy continues in 'avoid' mode suggesting lack of conviction, while Daily Energy does show some life. Weekly Momentum is not yet positive, while Daily Momentum continues strong as market moves out of its 'oversold' status. The Blue Line leading momentum indicator, shown in MZM liquid money supply, suggests market up side move is valid and has considerably more space.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count endorses completion of Intermediate Wave 2 corrective. Trend Sector Channels show clear move out of corrective mode. Trend Sector Channels asserts

irregular_corrective came in more like a 'type 2'. However 'low' of June 7 at 476.87 remains un-tested. Elliott Weekly Count supports the 'Alternate' 3 wave Intermediate wave 2 corrective as complete at 'B3' following completion of 5 wave count of Intermediate wave 1 of new bull market at 'B2'. If so, Intermediate wave 3 (up) of new bull market may be underway now.

Signpost Special: June 16/10, Elliott Wave Watch:... Refer Short Term Daily Count. Yesterday's low volume rally closed above beginning of wave 4 thus invalidating contention 5th wave of 'C' wave had further to move on the downside. Accordingly an alternate count is recognized with 'C' wave wave 5 completing at 476.87 close on June 7. The following 5 wave advance might therefore be considered as a first wave of Intermediate wave 3 of new bull market. Upon completion of 5th wave of this first wave expect a 3 wave correction which must hold above the 476.87 close of June 7 to confirm that low as completion of Intermediate wave 2 corrective and the current subsequent rally as commencement of Intermediate wave 3 of new bull market.

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Signpost: June 13/10, Expected: I believe we are still to have more downside to the correction which began in late April and that there are 3 waves to come (down, up, down) within context of a total of 5 waves - assuming 2 of which (5.1 & 5.2) are already complete (see Short Term Daily Count ) . These 5 waves (minute waves) will compose the 5th minor wave of a 5 wave 'C' wave down of the full(3 step abc) intermediate corrective - being (intermediate wave 2) after the 1st wave (intermediate wave 1) of the new bull market. Once complete, market will be ready to begin its 3rd intermediate wave - a major up move well into new high ground in due course.

Before Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles show tentative attempt at reversal. In Daily Candles, Friday was a weak follow through to Thursday's low volume strength - emphasizing market is unconvinced as to rally potential. Advance Decline Line is showing legitimate strength breaking down trend begun at end of April. Weekly Energy continues in 'avoid' mode while Daily Energy shows some recognition of last week's rally attempt. Weekly Momentum is clearly down while Daily Momentum is upward, adjusting from deeply oversold levels. liquid money supply (MZM) shows reversal of negative growth rate underway which is a clear positive for eventual market reversal to coincide. Coppock Curve Monthly reveals entry into downside momentum on a monthly basis.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count could argue for completion of irregular_corrective at point '5.1'. However Trend Sector Channels show break of important 'a' line support with rebound to underside of broken trend line suggesting resistance to further advance. In Short Term Daily Count I have introduced anticipation of final fifth wave of 'C' wave of intermediate abc corrective to be composed of its own 5 (minute) waves with 5.2 now in, possibly. Elliott Weekly Count suggests a 5th wave of 'C' wave can be expected.

Signpost:June 6/10, Expected : Friday's decline signaled completion of wave 4 and launch of wave 5 (down) to proceed to bring in the 'C' wave as a type 1 irregular_corrective. - Which may terminate with an emotional capitulation expected perhaps within a week or so? Such action would complete the full (3 step) Intermediate corrective (wave 2) of the 1st wave of the new bull market. Once complete, market will be ready to begin its 3rd wave - a major up move well into new high ground in time.

Before Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles show down trend has resumed despite prior week's reversal indication. Similarly, Daily Candles indicate down trend resumption. Western Bar Chart is on verge of confirming break of important support line. Advance Decline Line is set to break rising flag formation as market index already has. Weekly Energy and Daily Energy are clearly in 'avoid zones'. Weekly Momentum has confirmed its down trend, although Daily Momentum has not broken its recovery attempt from a deeply oversold level. Coppock Curve Monthly has now turned down from its peak. Click through 3 bond charts indicating Friday's retreat from 'equity risk' into safety of bonds (?).

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count shows wave 4 of 'c' wave of Intermediate (abc) corrective transitioning to final wave 5 to complete the Intermediate wave 2 corrective (which has been occurring after first intermediate wave of the new bull market). Trend Sector Channels show wave 4 of 'c' wave now complete with wave 5 beginning with 'a' line support once again broken. Short Term Daily Count implies progression to bring in 'C' wave as a type 1 irregular_corrective. The Elliott Weekly Count is in accordance with daily counts including alternative count (dotted red line) now completing its own 'c' wave of an abc corrective intermediate wave 2.

Signpost: May 30/10, Expected : While there have been some valid attempts last week to implement a reversal including a Lowry 90% up day confirmation of these attempts has not been forthcoming. Rather, we seem to have put in a type 1 irregular_corrective as a wave 4 preceding a final down wave 5 which should unfold this week if my counts are correct. see Short Term Daily Count.

Besides Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles show down trend in play with ability to turn up evident. Daily Candles show reversal rally attempt being thwarted by next day's action. Western Bar Chart shows intra day recovery from breakdown with no conviction on day following apparent strength. Advance Decline Line is not confirming last index low (a positive). Weekly Energy is in sell mode, and in avoid zone for Daily Energy. Weekly Momentum is heading down but Daily Momentum shows apparent reversal underway from deeply oversold level. MZM liquid money supply shows a probable upside reversal for this monetary growth measurement. IN ALL, non-Elliott indicators show some somewhat promising indications but not very convincing as of yet..

Elliott Wave Watch:...Long Term Daily Count shows wave 4 of 'c' wave of Intermediate (abc) corrective awaiting final wave 5 to complete the Intermediate wave 2 corrective of the new bull market. Trend Sector Channels show weak 'abc corrective' attempt within 'c' wave of of Intermediate corrective wave 2. Short Term Daily Count having completed a wave 4 seems now ready to bring in 5th wave (dn) of 'c' wave of 2nd Intermediate corrective (which is tracking as a 3 step type 1 irregular_corrective). Elliott Weekly Count - seems to be clearly confirming the daily counts as illustrated.

Signpost: May 23/10 , Expected : The market held at the low point of the February correction. Thursday was a Lowry 90% down day which can mark a bottom if as and when confirmed by a 90% up day which Friday was not. While Friday's rally fueled by short covering and options expirations was not given the credibility it may deserve, recognition for having held above a critical support may result in some further short term strength. But I believe the 5th wave within the 'c' wave requires a final down wave within its own 5 wave sequence (see red numbers in Short Term Daily Count). I'm looking for a 5th of the 5th as it were. When this 5th of 5th comes in it may break support at line 'a' and proceed quickly to Fibonacci retracement levels of 466 to 439. If not, then the ‘type 2’ irregular corrective will have won out and the 2nd Intermediate wave (a corrective itself) will have concluded and we are ready for the launch of the 3rd Intermediate (up) wave of the new bull market.

Besides Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles shows market's continuing down trend, however Daily Candles show possibility of Friday's rally continuing as rebound off a 90% down day. (see Lowry's 90% rule). Western Bar Chart points to 'key' support from February low holding. Advance Decline Line is in a clear down trend. Weekly Energy is in sell zone, Daily Energy is in short term buy zone, Weekly Momentum has reasserted its down trend while Daily Momentum may be indicating a rebound rally from a deeply oversold level. MZM Money supply may be suggesting leveling out of decline in growth rate. Click through 3 bond charts to see bond market as overextended. Overall, there is no clear indication of end to market's decline but it is at a level where that can likely occur,

Elliott Wave Watch:...Long Term Daily Count shows Intermediate Wave 2 just may be complete as a type 2 irregularcorrective if able to hold above support line from end of 'a' wave. Trend Sector Channels seem to confirm abc corrective type 2 as possibly complete. However the Short Term Daily Count indicates only 4 of 5 expected 'minute' waves of 5th of c wave are in. The 5th minute wave could very well penetrate the 'a' line support and descend to Fibonacci retracement levels at 466 (38.2%) or even 439 (50%). The Elliott Weekly Count seems to now confirm the daily counts

Signpost: May 16 /10: In Elliott Wave terms we have completed the 'b' up portion of Intermediate wave 2, an abc irregular corrective wave. We are now well into the 'c' wave portion which according to text should be a 5 step down wave . The 5th step is now in play and may bring ‘c’ in as 'type 2' of an abc irregular corrective; but, may extend ‘c’ into 11 waves or perhaps 'free fall' to complete the ‘c’ wave as a ‘type 1. Either way it will finish the 2nd Intermediate corrective wave of the new bull market. By an 'Alternative Weekly Count' we have completed the 5th wave of the 1^st major up move (1^st Intermediate wave) of the new bull market. A 2^nd (three step?) natural correction should follow of which the 1st and 2nd steps may now be in with 3rd step (down) now underway .

Besides Elliott, look at....Weekly Candles are in sell mode as most of last week's gain was relinquished. Daily Candles and Western Bar Chart confirm down trend - as now also implied by Advance Decline Line. While Weekly Energy is still holding on, this is not so with Daily Energy. Weekly Momentum in decline is strongly endorsed by Daily Momentum (which is now in 'oversold' territory). Note that Coppock Curve Monthly is turning over from its 'peak level'.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Trend Sector Channels indicate 'c' trend of 'abc' Intermediate corrective is now clearly evident. Long Term Daily Count confirms 3 wave Intermediate wave 2 corrective within new bull market is in play and in 3rd wave 'c'. Short Term Daily Count shows transition into 'c' wave which is expected to continue with 5th minute wave of 'c' of Intermediate 'abc' wave 2. One could expect this 5th of 'c' to extend into 11 minute waves to achieve its low or else maybe do so in a 'free fall' – either to come in as type 1 of an irregular corrective otherwise it could come in as a type 2 and complete quite soon holding above the low of ‘a’ wave. Elliott Weekly Count depicts a corrective ready to continue into its wave 'c' completion stage.

Signpost: May 9/10: In Elliott Wave terms we have completed the 'b' up portion of Intermediate wave 2, an abc irregular corrective wave. We have now begun the 'c' wave portion which according to text should be a 5 step down wave and which may now be 'in' as in 'type 2' of an abc irregular corrective; but, may extend into 9 waves 'come' 11 (including retracements) to complete the 2nd Intermediate wave, an 'abc' corrective (as a 'type 1' irregular) of the 1st intermediate move in the new bull market. By an 'Alternative Count' we have completed the 5th wave of the 1^st major up move of the new bull market. A 2^nd (three step?) natural correction should follow of which the 1st step may now be in. (with rebound up as 2nd step then 3rd step down to finish).

Look at:....Weekly Candles show sharp break with partial recovery and still vulnerable. Daily Candles decline continues despite Thursday's intra day recovery. Advance Decline Line shows severe break confirming drop by market index. Weekly Energy is still intact Daily Energy is very weak and continues in its 'sell zone'. Weekly Momentum is now resuming its decline well above its oversold level. Daily Momentum is now in severe decline and entering oversold territory. MZM Money supply - Market seems now to be recognizing negative growth of liquid money supply. Daily Bonds are ready to reverse after strong surge, but Coppock Bond Momentum shows plenty of room for continued strength as does Long Term Bond chart.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - "Alternative Count" (black line) shows beginning of 'corrective' after completion of 1st five step Intermediate Wave of new bull market. "Current Count" (red line) shows 'c' wave in full progress. Trend Sector Channels show assertive advent of 'c' wave of bull market's Intermediate wave 2 abc corrective. Short Term Daily Count now at 1st target with more downside quite clearly open. Elliott Weekly Count shows 'c' wave of irregular corrective may retain as type 2, but type 1 now seems quite open. "Alternate Count" (red line) in first corrective wave of normal 3 expected?

Signpost: May 2/10: The current rally appears now complete. In Elliott Wave terms we look to have completed the 'b' portion of Intermediate wave 2, an abc irregular corrective wave. If so we have now begun the 'c' wave portion which according to text should be a 5 step down wave to complete the intermediate 'abc' corrective to the 1st intermediate move in the new bull market. As well by an 'alternative count' we may have completed the 5th (& final?) wave of the 1^st major up move of the new bull market. If correct , a 2^nd wave down as a natural correction to the 1^st up wave should follow.

Look at:....Weekly Candles are indicating a convincing reversal. Daily Candles have turned decidedly down. Western Bar Chart shows a clear break of its up trend. Weekly Energy is still ok, but Daily Energy is very weak and has moved into its 'sell zone'. Weekly Momentum is positive but unconvincing. Daily Momentum is now clearly down. MZM Money supply suggests stock market disparity with money supply beginning to contract. Coppock Curve Monthly is at a 'peak' level.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Trend Sector Channels show beginning of the 'c' trend of intermediate wave 2, an (abc) corrective, of new bull market. Long Term Daily Count appears now headed south on both current and alternate counts. Short Term Daily Count shows the 'c' wave starting off with a descending reverse symmetrical triangle in process of carrying out first of 5 expected waves of the 'c' wave of Intermediate term corrective wave 2 of the new bull market. Elliott Weekly Count shows mature 5 step Intermediate term wave 1 of new bull market

Signpost: Apr 25/10 : The current rally continues to seem complete notwithstanding last week's apparent strength. Monday may well tell. In Elliott wave terms we should now have completed the 'b' portion of Intermediate wave 2, an expected abc irregular corrective wave. If so we are now at start of the 'c' wave portion which according to text should be a 5 step down wave to complete the intermediate abc' corrective to the 1st intermediate move in the new bull market. Alternatively we may now have completed the 5th (& final?) wave of the 1^st major up move of the new bull market. If that’s correct a 2^nd wave down as a natural correction to the 1^st up wave should follow.

Look at:....Weekly Candles show a 8 - 10 new highs sell indication denoting an overly extended market as vulnerable to reversal. Daily Candles show an Evening Star reversal still in force, but which admittedly may not hold against further market strength. The Advance Decline Line strength has continued to a new high. Weekly Energy and Daily Energy are both in good shape for the bull case. Weekly Momentum is now (finally) convincingly upward. But Daily Momentum is showing definite weakness suggesting a 'top' may be in. The liquid money supply growth rate is still negative in significant disparity with stock market. Finally, the Coppock Curve Monthly is now in 'peak' territory.

Elliott Wave Watch:...Trend Sector Channels shows break in long up trend, Long Term Daily Count indicates possible conclusion of 'b' wave of irregular corrective as well (alternatively) as 5th (final) wave of 1^st intermediate up wave of new bull market (see black line). Short Term Daily Count indicating 'b' wave of irregular corrective now may be in at point ' xv ' now that current up trend is broken. Elliott Weekly Count suggests 5th wave (my alternative count) of new bull market may be in as well and 'b' wave of irregular abc corrective may also be in on weekly basis too.

Signpost: Apr 18/10 : The current rally seems now complete. In Elliott wave terms we have now completed the 'b' portion of an Intermediate abc irregular corrective wave'. We may now expect start of the 'c' wave portion which according to text should be a 5 step down wave to complete the 'intermediate 'abc' corrective to the 1st intermediate move in the new bull market. As well we may now have completed the 5th (& final?) wave of the first major up move of the new bull market.

Look at:....Weekly Candles shows a shooting star reversal after showing 8 - 10 new highs denoting overly extended market as vulnerable to reversal . Daily Candles show an Evening Star reversal complete with a bearish 'Major Yin' candle. Daily Energy and Weekly Energy continue positive. Weekly Momentum is still in buy mode while Daily Momentum is now resuming its downside reversal. The Coppock Curve Monthly is now at level consistent with prior market peaks

Elliott Wave Watch:...Trend Sector Channels shows break in long up trend, Elliott Weekly Count shows a 5 wave impulse pattern classic to full intermediate wave as first major wave in new bull market now complete, as is irregular corrective wave 'b' ? Short Term Daily Count shows, by my count, the triple three of 11 minute waves pattern has extended into a quadruple three 15 wave pattern and the extensive up trend is now broken confirming end to upward corrective.

Signpost: Apr 11/10 : The current rally is, or is almost, complete with a little more short term strength likely. In Elliott wave terms we are advanced in the 'b' portion of an Intermediate abc

irregular corrective wave' . On completion of this 'b' wave expect start of the 'c' wave portion which according to text should be a 5 step down wave to complete the 'intermediate 'abc' corrective to the 1st move in the new bull market. Alternatively we may now be completing the 5th (& final?) wave of the first up move of the new bull market.

Look at:....Weekly Candles showing 8 - 10 new highs denoting overly extended market as vulnerable to reversal. Daily Candles suggesting some further short term upside. Advance Decline Line is still firm. Daily Energy and Weekly Energy are showing very positive. Weekly Momentum has now tuned positive. Daily Momentum is now attempting to regain strength

Elliott Wave Watch:...Long Term Daily Count is introducing an "alternative count" by suggesting that the 5th minor wave of the 1st intermediate wave is only now coming in and nearly complete, Elliott Weekly Count shows irregular corrective wave 'b' as coming in or minor wave 5 of 1st Intermediate wave of new bull market as fulfilled too? Short Term Daily Count suggests triple three upward corrective is extending which is deemed quite unusual.

Signpost: Apr 3/10 : The current rally is, or is almost, complete as the 'b' portion of an 'Intermediate abc irregular corrective wave' . On completion of this 'b' wave expect start of the 'c' wave portion which according to text should be a 5 step down wave to complete the 'intermediate 'abc' corrective to the 1st move in the new bull market. On completion of second move (the intermediate 'abc' corrective we’re now in) expect the third move up in the new bull market.

Look at:....Daily Candles which after a pause look as if another swing up is likely. This is the same with the Advance Decline Line which has consolidated with an upside bias. Weekly Momentum is now moved finally and late into 'positive mode'. However, Daily Momentum is now clearly reversed into 'down mode'. The MZM Money supply is showing 'alarming ?' divergence from the stock market direction. The Coppock Curve Monthly is now in 'peak' territory. Click on each of 3 bond charts and observe critical support level we are now at in the very long term chart (last of the three).

Elliott Wave Watch:...Maturity of wave 'b' of intermediate wave 2 (an 'abc' corrective) is evident as we complete the 3rd wave of the 'b' wave which is a complex 'triple three wave' composed of 11 minute waves, see bottom of complex corrections page and, in real time, in Short Term Daily Count with the 11th and final wave (by the text) coming in (or is in) to complete 3rd wave of 'b' of 2nd intermediate corrective with the 5 step 'c' down wave to follow. Click through all Elliott wave charts - begin with Trend Sector Channels.

Signpost: Mar 28 /10: Intermediate 'abc' corrective wave is now completing its up wave 'b' portion(?). On completion of 'b' expect start of 'c' wave portion - a 5 step down wave to complete.

Look at:.... Weekly Candles note closings below highs, Daily Candles showing inclination to reverse, Advance Decline Line now weakening and breaking up trend, Weekly Momentum on verge of turning up, however Daily Momentum is now turning down rather convincingly. Note in MZM Money supply annual rate of change is now negative implying money available at spending and consumption level is now 'tight'. In regard to low volume throughout the rally read Michael Kahn's article on this important subject.

Elliott Wave Watch:... The corrective (intermediate wave 2) to the first intermediate wave of the new bull market, I contend, is in the nature of an 'irregular correction' which may turn out to be of a type 1 ('c' comes in below 'a') or type 2, ('c' comes in above 'a') see abc correctives. Note in Trend Sector Channels 'b' wave has now broken up trend, Long Term Daily Count suggests 'b' wave encountering resistance at 'pull back' line, Short Term Daily Count shows 3rd wave of 'b' wave concluding as a 7 wave 'double three' corrective, and on Elliott Weekly Count 'b' wave now at new high (at b2) - typical of an irregular corrective before entering into 'c' wave down and possibly breaking low of 'a' wave (at b1).

Signpost : Mar 21/10: Intermediate 'abc' corrective wave 2 (down) now completing up wave 'b' portion(?). On completion of 'b' expect start of 3rd minor wave 'c' - a 5 step down wave.

Look at:.... Daily Candles to see 'engulfing' sell signal after extensive upside advance. Note break in Advance Decline Line up trend. Declining Weekly Momentum is still intact and Daily Momentum is in process of completing reversal of its up trend. Have a look at MZM Money supply showing its growth rate has entered negative territory.

Elliott Wave Watch:...When 'b' wave (up) exceeds start point of down 'a' wave of an abc corrective expect the corrective to come in as a 'type 1' or 'type 2' irregular correction . Note the 'c' wave of type 1 makes a low below the end of 'a' wave and that type 2 does not. Accordingly we can expect either result when the 'c' wave (down) completes its own 5 minute waves Take a look at the abc corrective status showing position of 'b' wave portion by clicking on Trend Sector Channels and then click it and on each subsequent chart to see full Elliott wave graphic series.

* Signpost : Mar 10/10,

1) I will be in Ottawa for my Grandson's 5th birthday Mar 12-14, so no Signpost on 14th. Expect Mar 7th comment to hold.

2) Of special note is "Break Down Pull Back" chart formation...

Look at:....Long Term Daily Count which shows break of important up trend line with decline to point 'a'. Next, market has rebounded back up to broken trend line at point 'b' which is regarded as a 'Pull Back' (or 'return move'). Although never certain, the usual ensuing procedure, having completed the 'Pull Back', is for market to re-enter its decline mode originally intended on its 'Break Down' and very often to decline below the low from whence the 'pull back' started (point 'a'). We shall see.

__________________

Signpost : Mar 7/10: Intermediate 'abc' corrective wave 2 (down) nearing completion of its 3 step minor wave up 'b' portion. On completion of 'b' expect start of 3rd minor wave 'c' - a 5 step down wave.

Look at:....Daily Candles Showing up trend composed of 2 up waves. Western Chart at top of trading channel with resistance from prior highs ready to fend off further advance. Advance Decline Line showing very strong but now overextended as it meets top of its trading channel. Weekly Energy shows short term strength with medium term still in sell mode. Daily Energy shows short and medium term strength in keeping with resumption of advance last week. Daily Momentum is now overextended and Weekly Momentum continues weak.

Elliott Wave Watch:...Trend Sector Channels shows 'b' wave at top of trend channel. View Long Term Daily Count for its full perspective. Short Term Daily Count shows normal three minute waves within minor wave 'b' rendering it potentially complete. Elliott Weekly Count suggests second intermediate 'abc' wave at point of completion of 'b' portion

___________________

*--- To click through all Elliott Wave charts with their individual commentaries begin at Trend Sector Channels .

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Note: The weekly update of "Signpost along the market's way" is now available on my website via a link from 'My Weekly Market View'

Signpost : Feb 26/10: Intermediate 'abc' corrective wave 2 (down) ready to resume with 'b' wave's energy seemingly expended. Now prepared to start 3rd minor 'c' wave - a 5 step down wave.

Look at:....Daily Candles rated neutral with energy expended. Western Chart shows up trend in danger by recent daily action, CAVEAT, Advance Decline Line is now at its prior high indicating strong internal strength. However in the short term Daily Energy and Weekly Energy are fading in the 'sell' zone. Weekly Momentum continues its clear weakness with Daily Momentum having corrected its 'oversold' condition.

Elliott Wave Watch:...Trend Sector Channels suggests 'b' wave (i_2.b) has expended its energy. Short Term Daily Count appears to be transitioning with an 'a'-'b' sequence as occurred after R-2 was in - (note transitional 'a'-'b' sequence there and strong 'c' wave that followed). Elliott Weekly Count seems to indicate the 'b' is in, as perhaps does the Long Term Daily Count.

Signpost : Feb 19/10: Intermediate 'abc' corrective wave 2 (down) continues - not withstanding strength of 'b' wave. Now ready to start - is 3rd step 'c' down wave (expected to have its own 5 steps). Once 'c' wave is in, Intermediate 'abc' corrective will be complete and 3rd Intermediate wave (up) of new bull market should begin.

Look at:....Daily Candles indicate small rally within context of prevailing down trend. Western Chart shows rally (upon break above upper range of trading channel referred to as a ' Throw over' which often signals terminal stage of rally) is at point of encountering overhead resistance provided by rectangle pattern. CAVEAT: Certainly the Advance Decline Line has shown impressive internal market strength; and, Daily Energy & Daily Momentum endorses such rally strength, however such has not transitioned into Weekly Energy nor Weekly Momentum. Regard the vision of a market 'rolling over' in Long Term Daily Count.

Elliott Wave Watch:...With Short Term Daily Count and Trend Sector Channels exhibiting an upward diagonal triangle with 'Throw over (as mentioned above) I contend the 2nd Intermediate wave's 'b' wave is now apparently in; which arguably, is compatible with Elliott Weekly Count & Long Term Daily Count. Once again, the 5 step 'c' down wave is ready to commence. It should also terminate the Intermediate wave 2 corrective of the new bull market and set us up for entry into the 3rd Intermediate wave (an impulse up wave) of the new bull market. A few weeks should get us there.

Signpost : Feb 12 /10: Intermediate 'abc' corrective wave 2 (down) continues with 2 steps 'a' and 'b' now in. Ready to start - is 3rd step 'c' down wave (expected to have its own 5 steps). Once 'c' wave is in, Intermediate 'abc' corrective will be complete and 3rd Intermediate wave (up) of new bull market should begin.

Look at:....Daily Candles suggesting down trend about to continue. Western Chart shows bearish up pennant suggesting rebound attempt very weak and possibly complete. While Daily Energy and Daily Momentum show some positive influence of weak market recovery attempt, Weekly Energy and Weekly Momentum show downside influence still intact.

Elliott Wave Watch:...While this week's revised count displayed in Trend Sector Channels and Short Term Daily Count looks somewhat awkward, I believe it will hold. The new count does seem to display fairly well in longer term portrayals of Long Term Daily Count and Elliott Weekly Count. The implication is that while the severity of Intermediate wave 2 corrective may re-emerge, since it will be into the 5 step 'c' down wave, it should also terminate the Intermediate wave 2 corrective of the new bull market and set us up for entry into the 3rd Intermediate wave (an impulse up wave) of the new bull market. A few weeks should get us there.

Signpost : Feb 5/10: Expected : Intermediate corrective wave 2 (down) continues with 2 steps out of 5 in 1st minor wave 'a' complete. Now ready to put in 3rd step (dn). Correction has more to do.

Look at:.... Weekly Candles show hesitation with attempted strength last week unlikely to overcome strong down message given by 'Marubozu of Yin' in Daily Candles. Likewise reversal attempt on Friday attributed to pre-weekend short covering with Western Chart suggesting its too early for reversal and any attempt will encounter stern resistance from congested trading just above, not to mention the rectangle barrier.

Elliott Wave Watch:...Begin with Trend Sector Channels tracking the Intermediate abc corrective now under way with 2 of the 5 waves within minor wave 'a' now in. A move into wave a-3 appears to have begun. This shows quite clearly in Short Term Daily Count and Long Term Daily Count as we disregard typically 'Unreliable Friday' action. Just to add to any short term confusion, there is also a phenomenon dubbed 'Mutual Fund Monday' which identifies Monday strength to result from fund companies buying to adjust for net inflows of prior week thereby often rendering Monday strength as unreliable too.

Signpost : Jan 29/10: Expected : Action confirms break down. Indications are now quite clear we are in the 2nd intermediate wave - a corrective down wave - within the new bull market.

Look at:....Reversal of up trend in Weekly Candles & and clear down trend in Daily Candles. All of Daily Energy , Weekly Energy , Daily Momentum and Weekly Momentum now trending down. Also closely note break of support line and failure of recovery attempt in Western Chart. Finally, see Advance Decline Line for break of up trends by market index and the ad/line.

Elliott Wave Watch:...Refer Trend Sector Channels as early in decline of 5 minute steps of 1st minor wave of 2nd intermediate wave correction which itself is to be composed of 3 minor waves, (concluding in March as some say). See Short Term Daily Count as well and look at Elliott Weekly Count and Long Term Daily Count to contemplate there is possibly plenty of downside available - say to peak of 1st retracement.

Signpost : Jan 24/10: Expected : We got the 'break' ! Indications are now quite clear we are in the 2nd intermediate wave - a corrective down wave - within the new bull market.

Look at:.... Weekly Candles confirms Harami sell signal, Daily Candles showing dramatic result of 3 preceding sell signals. Western Chart shows break down below bottom of rectangle removing that source of support. Advance Decline Line shows breaking of up trend for both A/D Line and Market Index (the OEX). Weekly Momentum now ready to head down releasing its pent up energy after lengthy sideways drift. Daily Momentum is already emphatically headed south. Daily Energy and Weekly Energy are both in their sell zones.

Elliott Wave Watch:....Long Term Daily Count. shows 2nd retracement complete with its 3 waves now clearly in. Trend Sector Channels and Short Term Daily Count show transition to an abc irregular corrective with 'c' wave now in play. Text requires 'c' wave to have ‘fast’ 5 waves (3 down + 2 up). We are now in (about to complete?) the first wave of 'c'. Turn now to Elliott Weekly Count showing classic 5 waves to complete 1st Intermediate Wave of new bull market.

Signpost : Jan 17/10: Expected : We're almost there. All we need is the 'break'. The break down may have started Friday. If so intermediate corrective (dn) wave 2 we've been waiting for within new bull market, is commencing.

Look at:.... Weekly Energy has now shifted into sell mode, Daily Momentum is now turning down, both Daily Candles and Weekly Candles have rendered sell signals and Western Chart shows inclination to break.

Elliott Wave Watch:....The third wave of the second retracement seems now complete - having completed 5 minute internal waves see:Trend Sector Channels and Short Term Daily Count. Also, see a very clear 5 wave count on The Weekly Count to complete? the first Intermediate (Impulse) wave of the new bull market. See the full daily count including extension into 9 waves with 2 retracements now believed complete on Long Term Daily Count.

CAVEAT: I've become somewhat distrustful of a weak close on the Friday prior to an US long weekend, however this one did seem to have some valid fundamental footing.

Signpost : Jan 10/10: Expected : Santa's rally continues with diminishing distance signaling exhaustion. If so intermediate wave 2 (down) we've been waiting for, of new bull market, is almost ready to commence.

Look at:.... Notice in Elliott Weekly Count how wave 3 traveled less than wave 1 and wave 5 (final up wave?) has traveled less than wave 3 attesting to my 'diminishing distance' observation foretelling exhaustion. Note also lack of enthusiasm in strength following breakout, see Western Chart. Nevertheless, the Advance Decline Line is still showing improving breadth and while Weekly Momentum is till waning, Daily Momentum is recognizing the new advance such as it is. Hard to say, but any time soon this run will peter out and we'll be done with it.

Elliott Wave Watch:....While it seems like an awfully long rally from its beginning last March, it has actually followed a defined Elliott Wave progression. 1) an initial 5 waves up followed 2) by a 4 wavered extension to total 9 waves, [followed by mandatory 2 retracements] - 3) a 3 wave 1st retracement (dn) and 4) a second 3 wave retracement (up) which I'd say has to be just about complete to end the first Intermediate wave of the new bull market. See all this on Short Term Daily Count and Trend Sector Channels. Following completion of 2nd retracement, a 'fast' first minor down wave (composed itself of 5 minute waves) can be expected which will begin the second Intermediate wave (composed of 3 minor waves - 1 down, 1 up, 1 down.) of the new bull market.

Separately now, I draw your attention again to the dramatic decline in the annual growth rate of MZM, the liquid money supply now at 3.14% down from 15.8% a year ago. Seems to me to be quite disturbing regarding money available to spend but a real curtailment of inflationary implication of prior excessive growth.

Signpost : Jan 2/10: Expected : Santa's rally is complete as is Elliott's 2nd retracement? If so intermediate wave 2 (down) we've been waiting for, of new bull market, is now clear to commence.

Look at:.... Market on weekly basis is clearly overbought and building to reverse. See Weekly Candles. Take note of beautiful "Tweezer Top" that's now in on a daily basis, see Daily Candles. Note also the failed breakout attempt on the Western Chart. On a closing basis a breakout did occur on this last rally, but promptly turned back into the rectangle in denial, see Trend Sector Channels. Add to all this the waning energy on daily basis at Daily Energy, and failing momentum in Daily Momentum , Weekly Momentum Coppock renditions. CAVEAT: Of course so called failures I've pointed to may only be a pull back to wind up for a real breakout, but I really doubt that for now. There are reports individual investors are joining others in the purchase of US Treasury bonds which restricts their liquid money supply. For a measurement of this see MZM Money supply and note drop of this liquid money supply measurement from an annual rate of 15.8% to the current 4.48%.

Elliott Wave Watch:....Looking first at Long Term Daily Count we can see the normal 5 wave impulse wave off the March low that went into a typical extension of 4 additional waves for a sum of 9 waves. Following such an extension, '2 retracements will occur (1 up and 1 down) as happened. Following completion of these retracements a 'fast' first minor down wave (composed itself of 5 minute waves) can be expected to begin the second Intermediate wave (composed of 3 minor waves - 1 down, 1 up, 1 down.) of the new bull market. See close up of 1st intermediate wave of the new bull market at Short Term Daily Count and Trend Sector Channels. If we are correct in our assumption the 2nd retracement is complete we should now see the 'fast' first minor wave down commence.

Signpost : Dec 28/09: Expected : Santa's seasonal strength overcomes inherent weakness allowing short term rebound that may continue further but is not very trustworthy.

Look at:.... Seasonal Strength at year end (referred to as Santa Clause Rally) has been a positive influence allowing prevailing weakness to be modestly overcome with rally on diminishing volume allowing break out of rectangle consolidation by S&P 500 Index and NASDQ, but not as yet convincingly by Dow Jones Industrials nor our S&P 100 index. See Trend Sector Channels , Short Term Daily Count and Western Chart. However we must give credence to building strength in the Advance Decline Line showing positive divergence against these latter two indices. All indices are in maturing "overbought" territory suggesting downside correction is nearby, see Weekly Momentum too. To gain additional perspective from interest rate build, click through the 3 bond charts and the Coppock Bond Momentum chart.

Wave Watch:....The third minor wave of the Second Retracement appears to have regained some upside progress possibility. If so, new high ground is to be expected in what I believe to be the 'borrowed time' left. See Short Term Daily Count and Trend Sector Channels. For a longer term Elliott perspective see Long Term Daily Count and Elliott Weekly Count.

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Signpost : Dec 20/09: Expect: Market energy weakens further with top virtually complete. Extension of Second Elliott retracement wave appears now to have failed.

Look at:.... Once again see Daily Candles and Weekly Candles depicting completing of topping out process. See too reads on market energy at Daily Energy and Weekly Energy. Next, Western Chart shows its rectangle still intact but with failure to confirm upper range is now in a "last chance" position - see note on Elliott's complex double sideways correction at Trend Sector Channels. A major plus is the positive divergence of the Advance Decline Line having broken to a new high while our market index (S&P 100) has not done so, nor has the broader NYSE Composite index (however the Dow Jones Industrial (DJII) and NASDQ indices did break to new highs with the DJII quickly failing). Nevertheless The A/D Line is often a reliable 'leading' indicator.

Wave Watch:....We have been allowing for a third minor wave [3 of R-2] of the second retracement to carry on to a new high. This appears to have failed as the index dropped below the low of the second wave of the

second retracement at [2 of R-2], see Short Term Daily Count . Refer text and graph notes in Trend Sector Channels. For a look at Elliott Wave from a big picture perspective see Long Term Daily Count and The Weekly Count which indicate maturity of the first intermediate wave of the new bull market with only a slight chance of further advance prior to onset of the second intermediate wave (a 3 step corrective).

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*** PLEASE NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO WEEKEND UPDATE NEXT WEEK ***

Signpost : Dec 13 /09: Expect: Consolidation continues as market energy weakens and charts look Topy. However Elliott wave seems ready for upside resolution and momentum readying to turn.

Look at:.... See Daily Candles and Weekly Candles depicting a topping out with unwillingness to exhibit real strength and Western Chart showing floundering within a rectangle and Daily Energy very weak. It must be understood though that a rectangle consolidation is actually defined as a trend continuation pattern so expectation for an eventual upside break out should not be denied. See Elliott Wave Trend Sector Channels for more on this and Daily Momentum which seems beginning to try to turn to upside.

Wave Watch:....We are tracking three step progress of the second retracement [R-2]. The 1st step [1 of R-2] involved 9 minute waves calling for the subsequent 2 (minute) retracement waves. We have the first of these now in as a downward abc wave series. We are now embarking on the second (minute) retracement up wave. This second (minute) up wave actually coincides with advent of the third [3 of R-2] minor wave expected as a final up wave to the second retracment [R-2]. see: Short Term Daily Count and also Trend Sector Channels. The important thing to bear in mind is this third minor wave of the second retracement [R-2] will terminate the second retracement (it being the 'b' wave of an irregular correction). There then is to follow the 'c' wave which ought to head down with 5 'fast' waves and possibly proceed to well below the low of the first retracement at [a]. --(according to text).

Signpost : Dec 6/09: Expect: Resolution of volatile sideways movement up or down to take place this week. While an upside break out may be spectacular it might very well be short lived and preceed a serious decline.

Look at:....Is there a triple top to be confirmed this week by a downside resolution? see: Trend Sector Channels, Western Chart, Short Term Daily Count and Advance Decline Line. Note though, the advance decline line's positive divergent up tic versus the continued sideway movement of the market index. However, in Daily Candles take note of Thursday's decline and Friday's failure to hold its advance and likewise failure of weekly action to hold on to its highs. While these do suggest prevalent weakness, a strong move to close at new a high could signal an upside break out and recognition of continued life for the rally off the March low which I believe would be only of a short term nature should it happen. The key indication of a downside resolution is the inability to hold the highs on both daily and weekly basis, see Weekly Candles and again the Daily Candles.

Wave Watch:....This week I am giving recognition to an alternative to my "Transitional" contention. A second retracement [R-2] as a 'b' wave of an irregular correction should be composed of 3 minor waves only. The first minor wave [1 of R-2] contained 5 minute waves. We then entered the second minor wave [2 of R-2] that has turned out to be sideways and has now completed its own 5 minute waves. If so, we should now move on to the third and final minor wave (up) of [R-2]. see: Short Term Daily Count. The important thing to bear in mind is the third minor wave of the second retracement [R-2] will terminate the second retracement (it being the 'b' wave of an irregular correction). There then is to follow the 'c' wave which ought to head down with 5 'fast' waves and proceed to well below the low of the first retracement at [a]. (according to text)

Signpost : Nov 27/09: Expect: Anticipated correction has now re-asserted itself and should continue down strength this week. Weak US$ losing contrary influence. See Nov 9/09 Signpost..

Look at:....When US$ declined sharply on Friday morning, the market lost strength too - contrary to its recent "carry trade" behaviour noted in Nov 9th signpost, so perhaps we've seen the end for now of US$ weakness resulting in stock market strength. Look at market weakness continuing to evolve into a very visible declining phase by observing again: Weekly Candles , Daily Candles , Western Chart , Daily Energy , Daily Momentum , Weekly Momentum. Observe too that a "double Top" looks to have been put in, see Trend Sector Channels . The conclusion that the correction will become very evident seems now quite apparent.

Wave Watch:....The concern mentioned (in Nov 20 wave watch) that [R-2] might extend now seems remote. Rather, I believe we have seen a "Transitional" move wherein a corrective type 'abc' reversal takes place to 'transit' the [R-2] retracement (the b wave) into the final portion of the sequence being a 'fast' five wave decline to well below the [a] wave at [R-1] to bring in the third or [c] wave of the 3 wave 'abc' irregular corrective sequence - to follow the extension to include 9 minor waves of the 1st intermediate up wave of the new bull market. See Short Term Daily Count and Trend Sector Channels. If these 5 'fast' waves do occur they will be seen as the 1st minor wave of a 3 step intermediate corrective (being the second wave of the new bull market). So, after the 5 'fast' steps we'll watch for a 2nd wave (a bounce up) to be followed by a final 3rd wave (down with its own 5 waves?) to complete the second intermediate wave to the new bull market. Down, Bounce, Down to complete and to hold above the March 9 low.

Signpost : Nov 20/09: Expect: Anticipated correction re-asserting itself with gaining strength this week. Weak US$ still able to interrupt correction. See Nov 9/09 Signpost..

Look at:....To get the picture, observe: Weekly Candles , Daily Candles , Western Chart , Daily Energy , Daily Momentum , Weekly Momentum , All turning south or in process thereof.

Wave Watch:.... To review; after extension of a 5 wave move into 9 waves, normal sequence is for two retracements to occur [ R-1 ] and [ R-2 ]. These I believe are now in (provided R-2 does not itself extend into 9 waves). See Short Term Daily Count , Trend Sector Channels , Long Term Daily Count . Once the two retracements R-1 and R-2 are 'in' as mentioned, the final portion of the sequence is a 'fast' five wave decline to well below the [b] wave at R-1 to bring in the [c] wave of the 3 wave sequence. If this does occur we can then expect a minor up wave to be followed by a minor down wave to complete the 2nd intermediate wave (a Corrective wave) of the new bull market. Once that's in we can look forward to the 3rd Intermediate wave of the bull market, an impulse wave to the upside.

(To click through all Elliott Wave charts with their individual commentaries begin at Trend Sector Channels .)

To see all my weekly charts visit: http://www.tomrogers.net/mkt_view.htm and click through each of the 4 blue icon boxes.

Featured Link: Among my weekly charts is a measurement of the rate of change (velocity) of the US Money Supply as measured by MZM (Money Zero Maturity) This week's featured Link is an explanation of this measurement and what its encouraging current message is all about according to famed economist Prieur du Plessis. Look at MZM Velocity

Signpost : Nov 13/09: Expect: Anticipated correction to re-assert itself this week interrupted perhaps by US$ weakness per Nov 9/09 Signpost..

Look at:....The Daily Candles have given a sell to the low volume rally that has interrupted the correction. see 'Wave watch....' (below) for more on nature of rally. The Advance Decline Line is 1) showing a potential Head and Shoulders Top reversal pattern and 2) is failing to confirm the new high in the market index. The Weekly Momentum is still fading from a high level. The Western Chart shows completion of a 'return move from yet another break down from a 'fan' formation.

Wave Watch:.... I am now returning to the alternate count from March low (described in Signpost of October 18). See short term daily count which depicts the alternate count revealing 4 wave extension completing at

9 - together with completion of the first retracement (down) at R-1 and completion (?) at R-2 of the second retracement (up) - that did qualify by making a new high, but may have a bit more upside. If the sequel to the 4 wave extension to 9 from 5 prevails, according to text it should happen this way: 1) a modest 3 step decline as 1st retracement, 2) A strong 3 step rally to a new high as 2nd retracement, 3) A severe 5 step decline possibly into "support range" between 413 and 440. We'd then expect a bounce followed by an additional decline to bring in the 2nd intermediate wave (down) of the new bull market and provide a favoured entry point for new purchases. We are on guard to await that happening, being alert to alternate counts that may occur.

(To click through all Elliott Wave charts with their individual commentaries begin at Trend Sector Channels .)

To see all my weekly charts visit: http://www.tomrogers.net/mkt_view.htm and click through each of the 4 blue icon boxes.

Signpost : Pre-Market Nov 9 /09: Expect: temporary market strength on US$ weakness. The effect of the "carry trade"

If I can borrow US$ at low interest rate close to '0' and then sell the dollars I borrowed and buy a commodity or high interest / return security in return., the value of the US$ goes down because of my selling to buy something else and the alternate instrument will go up because of my demand for purchase and since the us$ is now worth less because of the selling the value of my purchase goes up in US$ terms without its actual real value changing much at all. Today prior to market opening, the US$ is down sharply and accordingly the value of commodities including US equities can be expected to be up. It is important to be aware that when the US$ strengthens again, the value of commodities and equities can be expected to decline accordingly. Here are 2 links explaining the carry trade:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencycarrytrade.asp

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3aec6c2-b99e-11de-a747-00144feab49a.html

and the US$ chart: http://www.quote.com/us/futures/chart.action?s=DX+Z9&chartUi.period=D&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.bartype=CANDLE&chartUi.size=650x450&chartUi.minutes=

Signpost : Nov 8/09: Expect: Last week's consolidation smells. Decline to continue as correction remains underway .

Look at:.... Weekly Candles -smells like its rolling over, also see note 'B' on chart. Daily Candles -rally on pitiful declining volume now at resistance. Western Chart -poor follow through to Thursday's strength depicts 'dead cat bounce'. Advance Decline Line -short term consolidation prior to downtrend continuation? Daily Energy -Medium term energy continues to fade. Weekly Momentum and Daily Momentum still heading south. Weekly Bonds and Daily Bonds threaten continued decline which translates into rise in long term interest rates. (click to see all charts)

Wave Watch:.... I believe the 2nd wave of the 'c' wave of the irregular abc corrective may now be in. See short term daily count which has been refined somewhat from that of Oct 31/09 posting. I still look for this abc irregular corrective to constitute the 1st minor wave of 3 minor waves required to complete the 2nd intermediate wave (a corrective) of the new bull market. Accordingly, expect a minor up wave (minor wave 2) to follow completion of the current 'abc' first minor wave. Once the second minor wave (up) is in, the concluding 3rd minor wave (down) (which could take us into December) can be expected to complete the second intermediate wave (down) of the new bull market. Thereafter we’ll continue the bull market with launch of the third intermediate wave (up)

(To click through all Elliott Wave charts with their individual commentaries begin at Trend Sector Channels .

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Signpost: March 10/09 - The Terminal Low is now in by the texts.

Today, the advancing volume vs. declining volume ratio was 96.4% and the ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks was 93% and volume was very heavy. (See Signpost of November 13 below). These two factors qualify today's performance as a "90% Volume Reversal" day. As well the 9th wave came in yesterday to complete the fifth wave extension of the 'c' wave of the second retracement's 'b' wave. What should follow is the 'c' wave of the retracement which, by text according to Elliott Wave theory, ought to be a very strong 5 wave advance. A very strong 5 wave advance is typical of a new bull market. Typical also is heavy accompanying skepticism during the advance giving rise to the well known adage, "The market is climbing a wall of worry". Has a new bull market begun? We'll just have to see and we must abide by the caveat 'One day does not a market make', but it does sometimes - so proceeding with caution is prudent. If we're to have a reversal rally it is not fully qualified until it withstands a 'pullback' and hence is successfully tested.

Signpost: March 9/09 - We are now at the "or so" point. Terminal low within days?

From my last signpost on March 2, "We are now in this final 5th wave. I suspect it may stretch further - possibly in a downside 'blow off' or climatic fashion to conclude and bring in the 'Terminal Low' we're looking for. If so this should occur over the next week 'or so'. Confirmation that the terminal low is indeed 'in' should take place with a dramatic upside reversal right after the final down day.. Let's hope."

Mar 9 The fifth wave has stretched further by extending to have 9 waves (according to text theory) and the 8th is in or coming in now. This suggests the final low should happen this week if last Friday's late strength fails in a day or two. This extension of the 5th in and of itself can be regarded as 'blow off' or climatic in nature so in that regard a one day excess is not necessary or actually likely to denote the low, only one more swing down of a day or so will do it. What we're really looking for is a volume upside reversal to confirm the bottom as in, Here's the chart with my Elliott wave count. http://www.tomrogers.net/elliotda.htm . Here's a link to a possible 'trigger' for the reversal rally. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29549920

Signpost: March 2/09 - Darkness just before Dawn signals reversal is close by.

On a weekly basis all the Major US market indices have put in new lows for a couple of weeks now and except for the NASDQ they've now done so on a daily basis. All this signals a significant break down and downside action should follow through this week. HOWEVER, there comes a point when the damage is complete! In Elliott wave terms we are just about there now. Take a look at http://www.tomrogers.net/elliotda.htm . Notice we've completed a fifth wave extension into 9 waves which marks the end of the extension save for the two retracements. Retracement 1 was from the Nov. 20 low up to Jan 2 (see box a). The second retracement then began and is slated to be an abc 3 wave down to complete a 'b' wave (see box b). You can see the small 'a' and 'b' notes showing these first 2 waves as in. We are now in the 'c' portion. The 'c' portion, according to text, is to have 5 waves itself. I have numbered 4 of these waves as now in. Only the 5th wave is needed to complete the 5 wave sequence. We are now in this final 5th wave. I suspect it may stretch further - possibly in a downside 'blow off' or climatic fashion to conclude and bring in the 'Terminal Low' we're looking for. If so this should occur over the next week or so. Confirmation that the terminal low is indeed 'in' should take place with a dramatic upside reversal right after the final down day.. Let's hope... (PS, the reversal I speak of should have 5 waves (as a c ) lasting a few weeks or more and possibly be the first rally in a new bull market or a resounding bear market rally at the very least.) , Tom

Signpost: February 24/09 - Maybe yes, maybe no. Just to put a fine point on it

With Robert Prechter (dean of Elliott Wave analysis) calling for his subscribers to cover their shorts and Bernake promising not to nationalize banks just now, the market surged as if to confirm the bottom we're anticipating is now in and maybe it is. I could be wrong here, but...we’re seeing an abc wave unfold to carry out the second retracement we've been talking about. Looking closely at the c wave portion (using a 60 minute close up) I'm counting 3 of 5 waves in and today's action is wave 4 (or part there of) and wave 5 (a final down) is to follow which should happen within the next few days. So let's just see before we label yesterday's close the terminal low. http://www.tomrogers.net/elliotda.htm

Signpost: February 23/09 - post-market: S&P 500 fails February 22/09 Signpost holds

.In my pre-market addendum of this morning I was bringing to mind the off-chance the S&P 500 would hold above its Nov 20 low and allow for a positive banking resolution from the government which may secure a successful test by the S&P 500 to validate a terminal low as being in. Neither occurred. Consequently as advised, the February 22/09 Elliott wave interpretation survives and stands as continuing in play for now.

Signpost: February 23/09 - pre-market: ADDENDUM to signpost of February 22/09

It is possible the terminal low came in as of Friday's close as besides Dow Jones Industrials, Standard & Poors 500 and S&P100 as well as New York Composite indices have made weekly closings below Nov. 20 low to qualify the second retracement as having fulfilled its objective and the 'c' wave is free to start right away implying the 'terminal low' is actually in. Mind you, only the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 100 index have closed below Nov 20 on a daily basis. The fact the S&P can hold above Nov 20 low on a daily basis is very bullish by observations other than an Elliott Wave interpretation. If it does close below, then Elliott Wave description of February 22nd holds. Let's see what happens. Today may tell the tale.

Signpost: February 22/09 : Second Retracement completing to establish terminal low for bear market this week ???

In Elliott Wave terms, the 1st retracement ( see retracements explained ) is an 'a' up wave and had 3 minor waves as we've seen. The 2nd retracement, as a 'b' down wave would also have 3 waves. We are now in the third wave of 'b'.

According to Elliott, this 2nd retracement 'b' wave as part of an a b c irregular correction should extend beyond the beginning (Nov 20) of the 1st retracement 'a' wave which it is now doing. My expectation is it will continue further down this week to establish the terminal low for this bear market. Then, to follow is the 'c' wave. This 3rd or 'c' wave should be a dramatic up wave composed of 5 minor waves and indeed could be the 1st wave of a new bull market - since the "two retracements" themselves complete the extended C down wave which completes the ABC corrective which began with the topping out of the last bull market in 2,000. CAVEAT: If the anticipated very strong 'c' wave rally looks to be a new bull market, prudence dictates a successful 3 wave pull back from its peak should be required to confirm. Refer charts: http://www.tomrogers.net/elliotda.htm , http://www.tomrogers.net/elliotwk.htm . http://www.tomrogers.net/adline.htm .

Signpost: February 16/09 Second Retracement on verge of completion and hence completion of Bear Market !

Please review signposts of December 1/09 and December 1a/09 discussing Elliott's two retracements after a fifth wave extension. In simple terms, the first retracement was a rally from the November 20 low. The second retracement is a decline most probably (as illustrated in 'retracement' image attached ) down through the prior low (Nov 20) to finish the two retracements and the entire move beginning in October 2007 to conclude the Bear Market. see Elliott wave weekly chart. Click on 'retracement' image (attached) and note the inverse illustration for a market decline mirroring Elliott's illustration for a market advance. Note the second retracement penetrates the starting point (Nov 20) of the first retracement. I am suggesting a 'break down from the current short term sideways pattern ' into a final low within the next few weeks to establish the terminal low for this bear market.

Tom

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Thomas A. Rogers, CIM, FCSI, CFP, EPC

Investment Advisor, Beacon Securities Limited.

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