Elliott Wave Terms A) Impulse wave= a wave in direction of Primary Wave. B) Corrective wave= a wave in opposite direction of Primary Wave.1) Primary wave: a full bull market or bear market, 2) Intermediate wave: waves within a Primary Wave, 3) Minor wave: waves within an Intermediate wave, 4) Minute wave: waves within a minor wave, 5) Minuette wave, waves within a minute wave. cnclsp

* To see all my weekly charts visit: http://www.tomrogers.net/mkt_view.htm and click through each of the 4 blue icon boxes.

see also my monthly Canadian Buy List at http://www.tomrogers.net/buylist.htm and full website at http://www.tomrogers.net

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Signpost: February 3/12, Expected [ Briefly: Despite last week's strength which could?? continue for a few more days, Market remains ready to enter its final decline of the highly volatile correction that started on May 2, 2011. This final decline (or 'C' wave) will offer buying opportunities as individual stocks retreat to their value support levels indicated on their price charts. Over the last few weeks a bearish Rising Wedge pattern has evolved as you may see in my Western Bar Chart. A break down from this pattern (which I expect) has a typical downside objective at the low of this triangular pattern. Overall, the lengthy low volume volatile behaviour of the market is mature and virtually 'played out' and at a resistance level. Accordingly the risk level can be considered as high pending progress of the coming third and final corrective move down from the market 'top' of April 29,2011 affording the opportunity to purchase individual issues at support evels on the way down from here.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Harami Cross sell signal not confirmed, rally continued. Daily Candles, - Engulfing reversal continues rally. Western Bar Chart Bearish Rising Wedge formation awaiting confirmation via a break to downside, Blow off above upper range of trading channel often times marks end of rally. Advance Decline Line - Strong break to upside continues, which is very over-extended, confirms internal strength of market. Weekly Energy Short and medium term now in 'hold position'. Daily Energy - Short term in buy mode and medium term continues in 'sell' mode. Weekly Momentum - On verge of rendering sell on any weakness. Daily Momentum - Sell mode intact 'for now' further strength may change. MZM liquid money supply has now entered 10% growth rate with 'blue line money momentum' now turned upward to afirm bullish

continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now in area of issuing 'buy' signal. RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now

returning to sell mode from buy with bond market weakness.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - The first two impulse (up) waves of the new bull market are now seen to be in as waves 1 and 3, as is intermediate corrective wave 2. Intermediate Wave 4, an abc corrective, is now in play. The Final Minor Wave to the correction of the rally that peaked on April 29, 2011 is seen as ready to occur. As a 'C' wave decline it ought to be composed of 5 minute waves to complete,
and, to complete the full corrective begun on May 2, 2011. On completion of the decline of 'C', to follow would be the 5th wave (up) of a bull market that began on March 10, 2,009. (As a 5th wave to the bull market, it may be able to extend into 11 waves in accordance with Elliott Wave theory - which would be a welcome bonus.) Tom, as at Feb 3/12

See Short Term Daily Count and Long Term Daily count and Very Long Term Daily count for detailed graphics of the current favoured counts. Observe Elliott Weekly Count: to show evolution of new bull market on a weekly basis with 'Bull step 4 awaiting completion of the 'C' wave? Upon eventual completion of 'Bull step 5' we will have completed the first cyclical wave of a new secular bull market.

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*--- To click through all Elliott Wave charts with their individual commentaries begin at Trend Sector Channels .

To see all my charts visit: http://www.tomrogers.net/mkt_view.htm and click through each of the 4 blue icon boxes. ---*

* A Note on Seasonality in the Stock Market: It has been well documented that there are seasonal influences which tend to affect Stock Market behaviour as well as industrial sectors within the market itself. Canadian Advisor, Brooke Thackray,MBA,CIM,CFP president of AlphaMountain Investments produces a 'free' monthly letter with specific updates and commentary; subscribe at Thackray Market Letter. See past letters. Yearly, he also publishes a 12 month by month seasonality forecast which many consider to be the 'bible' on the subject. Click for a highlight of the subject matter covered by "Thackray's 2010 Investment Guide" . The book is available for a very modest price at Amazon.Com: and ChaptersIndigo.ca . You can also see a live example of the structuring and trading of Exchange Traded Funds on a seasonal basis within the new Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF, TSX symbol: HAC, managed by Brooke and renowned Canadian seasonality expert, Don Vialoux. who regularly includes seasonal strength appraisals in the course of his comprehensive daily analysis in 'Tech Talk' at ' timingthemarket.ca ' . Additionally Don offers an in-depth explanation of Seasonal investing in Special Report 5 on his Education Page as well as a interesting seasonality comments he's made in National Post, see Publications.

Note: The weekly update of "Signpost along the market's way" is now available on my website via a link from 'My Weekly Market View' where you may also connect to my “Monthly Canadian Buy List”

All information contained herein has been collected and compiled by Thomas A. Rogers, CIM, FCSI, CFP, EPC (Rogers), an Investment Advisor with IPC Securities Corporation (IPC Securities), an independently owned and operated member of the IIROC. All facts and statistical data have been obtained or ascertained from sources which Rogers believes to be reliable, but are not warranted as accurate or complete. All projections and estimates are the expressed opinion of Rogers, and are subject to change without notice. Neither IPC Securities nor Rogers take any responsibility for any errors or omissions contained herein, and accept any legal responsibility from any losses resulting from investment decisions based on the content of this report. The comments and opinions expressed in this report that are the result of work done by, Thomas A. Rogers, CIM, FCSI, CFP, EPC may differ from the opinion of IPC Securities Corporation; and, should not be considered as representative of IPC Securities' beliefs, opinions or recommendations.

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Signpost: January 27/12, Expected [ Briefly, repeating last week's expectation : Market is ready to enter its final decline of the highly volatile correction that started on May 2, 2011. This final decline (or 'C' wave) will offer buying opportunities as individual stocks retreat to their support levels indicated on their price charts. Over the last few weeks a bearish Rising Wedge pattern has evolved as you may see in my Western Bar Chart. A break down from this pattern (which I expect) has a typical downside objective at the low of this triangular pattern. Overall, the lengthy low volume volatile behaviour of the market is mature and tired and at a resistance level once again. Accordingly the risk level can be considered as high pending progress of the coming third and final corrective move down from the market 'top' of April 29,2011 affording the opportunity to purchase individual issues at support evels on the way down from here.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Harami Cross sell signal indicated. Daily Candles, - Harami sell signal confirmed. Western Bar Chart Bearish Rising Wedge formation awaiting confirmation via a break to downside, Blow off above upper range of trading channel often times marks end of rally. Advance Decline Line - Strong break to upside continues, which is very over-extended, confirms internal strength of market.

Weekly Energy Short and medium term now in 'hold position'. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term now in 'sell' position position. Weekly Momentum - Entering 'overbought ' level and losing strength. Daily Momentum - With line 'cross-overs' sell signal continues. MZM liquid money supply has now entered 10% growth rate with 'blue line money momentum' now turned upward to afirm bullish underpinning of stock market.

['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline just concluded possibly points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market mode' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Sell signal not yet confirmed indicating some strength my yet prevail. Daily Bonds New up trend now indicated by 'morning star reversal' signaling

possible strong advance for bonds and weakness for stock market? Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for declining stock market should bonds advance and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now in area of issuing 'buy' signal. RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returning to buy mode from sell with bond market strength.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - The first two impulse (up) waves of the new bull market are now seen to be in as waves 1 and 3, as is intermediate corrective wave 2. Intermediate Wave 4, an abc corrective, is now in play. The Final Minor Wave to the correction of the rally that peaked on April 29, 2011 is seen as ready to occur. As a 'C' wave decline it ought to be composed of 5 minute waves to complete,
and, to complete the full corrective begun on May 2, 2011. On completion of the decline of 'C', to follow would be the 5th wave (up) of a bull market that began on March 10, 2,009. (As a 5th wave to the bull market, it may be able to extend into 11 waves in accordance with Elliott Wave theory - which would be a welcome bonus.) Tom, as at Jan 27/12

See Short Term Daily Count for detailed graphic of the current favoured count. Observe Elliott Weekly Count: to show evolution of new bull market on a weekly basis with 'Bull step 4 awaiting completion of the 'C' wave? Upon eventual completion of 'Bull step 5' we will have completed the first cyclical wave of a new secular bull market.

Signpost: January 20/12, Expected [ Briefly: Market is ready to enter its final decline of the highly volatile correction that started on May 2, 2011. This final decline (or 'C' wave) will offer buying opportunities as individual stocks retreat to their support levels indicated on their price charts. Over the last few weeks a bearish Rising Wedge pattern has evolved as you may see in my Western Bar Chart. A break down from this pattern (which I expect) has a typical downside objective at the low of this triangular pattern. Overall, the lengthy low volume volatile behaviour of the market is mature and tired and at a resistance level once again. Accordingly the risk level can be considered as high pending progress of the coming third and final corrective move down from the market 'top' of April 29,2011 affording the opportunity to purchase individual issues at support evels on the way down from here.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Up trend quietly continues. Daily Candles, - Up trend continues despite attempts at reversal. Western Bar Chart Bearish Rising Wedge formation awaiting confirmation via a break to downside, Blow off above upper range of trading channel often times marks end of rally. Advance Decline Line - Strong break to upside continues confirming internal strength of market. Weekly Energy Medium term continues in sell zone short term remains in hold on position. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term rest in hold on position. Weekly Momentum - New up trend from oversold level continues strength entering 'overbought level. Daily Momentum - With line 'cross-overs' sell signal continues. MZM liquid money supply has now entered 10% growth rate with 'blue line money momentum' now turned upward to afirm bullish

underpinning of stock market. ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline possibly points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market mode' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Consolidation appears now ready to break to downside which would indicate accompanying stock market strength. Daily Bonds -New up trend halted by "Evening Star Reversal" signaling strong decline for bonds and strength for stock market? Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for declining stock market should bonds advance and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now in area of issuing 'buy' signal. RS Trading Oscillator - Weakness of this weekly measure now returning to sell mode from buy with bond market weakness.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - The first two impulse (up) waves of the new bull market are now seen to be in as waves 1 and 3, as is intermediate corrective wave 2. Intermediate Wave 4, an abc corrective, is now in play. The Final Minor Wave to the correction of the rally that peaked on April 29, 2011 is seen as ready to occur. As a 'C' wave decline it ought to be composed of 5 minute waves to complete,
and, to complete the full corrective begun on May 2, 2011. On completion of the decline of 'C', to follow would be the 5th wave (up) of a bull market that began on March 10, 2,009. (As a 5th wave to the bull market, it may be able to extend into 11 waves in accordance with Elliott Wave theory - which would be a welcome bonus.) Tom, as at Jan 20/12

Signpost: January 13/12, Expected [ Briefly: Market is about to enter its final decline of the highly volatile correction that started on May 2, 2011. This final decline (or 'C' wave) will offer buying opportunities as individual stocks retreat to their support levels indicated on their price charts. Over the last few weeks a bearish Rising Wedge pattern has evolved as you may see in my Western Bar Chart. A break down from this pattern (which I expect) has a typical downside objective at the low of this triangular pattern. Overall, the lengthy low volume volatile behaviour of the market is mature and tired and at a resistance level once again. Accordingly the risk level can be considered as high pending progress of the now commencing third and final corrective move down from the market 'top' of April, 2011 affording the opportunity to purchase individual issues at support evels on the way down from here.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Up trend quietly continues. Daily Candles, - Hanging Man reversal awaits confirmation. Western Bar Chart Bearish Rising Wedge formation awaiting confirmation via a break to downside, Advance Decline Line - Strong break to upside confirming internal strength of market. Weekly Energy Medium term continues in sell zone short term remains in hold on position. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term rest in hold on position. Weekly Momentum - New up trend from oversold level continues strength. Daily Momentum - With line 'cross-overs' sell signal is rendered. MZM liquid money supply

has now entered 10% growth rate with 'blue line money momentum' now turned upward to afirm bullish underpinning of stock market. ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines,

possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline possibly points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Consolidation seems ready to break to upside. Daily Bonds - New up trend now underway. Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for declining stock market should bonds advance and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now now on verge of issuing 'buy' signal. RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returning to buy mode from sell with bond market strengthening.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - The first two impulse (up) waves of the new bull market are now seen to be in as waves 1 and 3, as is intermediate corrective wave 2. Intermediate Wave 4, an abc corrective, is now in play. The Final Minor Wave to the correction of the rally that peaked on April 29, 2011 is seen as ready to occur. As a 'C' wave it ought to be composed of 5 minute waves to complete,
and, to complete the full corrective begun on May 2, 2011. On completion of the decline of 'C', to follow would be the 5th wave (up) of a bull market that began on March 10, 2,009. (As a 5th wave to the bull market, it may be able to extend into 11 waves in accordance with Elliott Wave theory - which would be a welcome bonus.) Tom, as at Jan 13/12

Signpost: January 6/12, Expected [ Briefly: Over the last few weeks a bearish Rising Wedge pattern has evolved as you may see in my Western Bar Chart. A break down from this pattern (which I expect) has a typical downside objective of the low of this triangular pattern. Overall, the lengthy low volume volatile sideways behaviour of the market is mature and tired. and at a resistance level once again. Accordingly the risk level can be considered as high and continued caution is warranted until a final and significant decline occurs as the third corrective move from the market 'top' of April, 2011.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Renewed up trend still intact. Daily Candles, - Hanging men reversal indications appear confirmed by Friday's downside. Western Bar Chart Bearish Rising Wedge formation awaiting confirmation via a break to downside, Advance Decline Line - Now back to prior high vindicating market index strength. Weekly Energy Medium term read now in sell zone short term remains in hold on position. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term rest in hold on position. Weekly Momentum - New up trend from oversold level continues strength. Daily Momentum - Reversal to upside continues up trend. MZM liquid money supply Stabilizing at 9% growth rate with 'blue line money momentum having broken up trend which had affirmed bullish underpinning of stock market. Market may now give recognition to steep down trend in money supply growth strength . ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline now points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Bearish 'Harami' signal awaits decline next week to confirm. Daily Bonds - Engulfing reversal to upside having held above prior decline's low. Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for declining stock market should bonds advance and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now continuing in sell mode but seeking upside reversal . RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returning to buy mode from sell with bond market strengthening.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - The first two impulse (up) waves of the new bull market are now seen to be in as waves 1 and 3, as is intermediate corrective wave 2.Intermediate Wave 4, an abc corrective, is now in play with the minor 'b' wave interpreted as extending with two retracements of which 'R1' is in as is R2 with required 2 waves evident. Accordingly, the 'B' wave is now complete. ( Minute wave 2
(up) is read as a 3 step 'abc' corrective with 5th wave of 'c' now in) Minute C11_3 (dn) played out by having broken down from within a symetrical triangle via a minuette 5th wave 'thrust' which constitutes minute wave 1 of C11_3. Also, an additional triangle is coming in as minute wave 2 in the nature of a b wave within an irregular correction ? Then 3 additional minute waves (dn,up,dn) would then be expected - to be led by minute wave 3 (dn) leaving 2 more minute waves to follow in completion of minor wave 'C" (barring an extension) and hence Intermediate wave 4, an 'abc' corrective, following which the bull market is expected to continue with its 3rd impulse wave up. Tom, Jan 6/12.

See Short Term Daily Count for graphic of the current favoured count. Trend Sector Channels shows an alternate close up of recent action with its conclusion minor 'C' wave is now complete (which I distrust) and thus Intermediate corrective wave 4 is now complete. Observe Elliott Weekly Count: to show evolution of new bull market on a weekly basis with 'Bull step 4 awaiting completion of the 'C' wave? Upon eventual completion of 'Bull step 5' we will have completed the first cyclical wave of a new secular bull market.

Signpost: December 30/11, Expected [ Briefly: Over the last few weeks a bearish Rising Wedge pattern has evolved as you may see in my Western Bar Chart. A break down from this pattern (which I expect) has a minimum downside objective of the low of the triangular pattern.Overall, the lengthy volatile sideways behaviour of the market is mature and tired. and at a resistance level once again. Accordingly the risk level can be considered as high and continued caution is warranted until a final and significant decline occurs as the third corrective move from the market 'top' of April, 2011.

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Harami pattern suggests reversal at hand. Daily Candles, - Up trend reversal indicated awaiting confirmation. Western Bar Chart Bearish Rising Wedge formation awaiting confirmation via a break to downside, Advance Decline Line - Resting at top of upward corrective channel gives a neutral read, Weekly Energy Medium term read now in sell zone short term remains in hold on position. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term rest in hold on position. Weekly Momentum - New up trend from oversold level continues strength. Daily Momentum - Tentative reversal to upside now indicated. MZM liquid money supply 9% growth rate now in jeopardy with dip to 8.5% with 'blue line money momentum breaking up trend which had affirmed bullish underpinning of stock market. Market may now give recognition to steep down trend in money supply. ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline now points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Engulfing continuation signal indicates bonds now likely to advance again despite prior week's weakness. Daily Bonds - Harami reversal pattern confirmed by Wednesday's strength continuing. Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for declining stock market should bonds advance and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now continuing in sell mode but seeking upside reversal . RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returned to buy mode from sell with bond market strengthening.

read as a 3 step 'abc' corrective with 5th wave of 'c' now in) Minute C11_3 (dn) played out by having broken down from within a symetrical triangle via a minuette 5th wave 'thrust' which constitutes minute wave 1 of C11_3.

Also, an additional triangle is coming in as minute wave 2? Then 3 additional minute waves (dn,up,dn) would then be expected to be led by minute wave 3 (as an ' e ' wave thrust down to complete the additional triangle.) which would leave 2 more minute waves to follow in completion of minor wave 'C" (barring an extension) and hence Intermediate wave 4, an 'abc' corrective, following which the bull market is expected to continue with its 3rd impulse
wave up. Tom, Dec 30/11.

Signpost: December 16/11, Expected [ Briefly: This week a reversal of an advance attempt was signaled on Monday by thwarting 'would be' strength of prior Friday (a dismal low volume endorsement of the EU summit policy conclusion). To reiterate last week's chart observation; when a stock breaks an up trend line it is not unusual for it to rally back up to the underside of the trend line (called a return move) before heading down in earnest (now begun?) to fulfill its intended downside destination. see Western Bar Chart and Short Term Daily Count for example of the return move we have just witnessed. My count of current Elliott Wave configuration calls for a down wave, an up wave and a final down wave. Since mid August the market has, with volatile energy, moved sideways with a modest upward bias which the Advance Decline Line is suggesting to me is now probably finished. It is not too early to begin reviewing purchase selections for when the coming 3 wave downside action is complete

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Reversal of up trend now indicated. Daily Candles, - Dark cloud cover sell signal on Monday resisting challenges on Thursday and Friday. Western Bar Chart Attempt to resume down trend after 'return move' completion may prove successful. Advance Decline Line - Holding above prior low for now with down trend intact. Weekly Energy Medium term read now in sell zone. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term now in sell zone. Weekly Momentum - New up trend from oversold level continues. Daily Momentum - Sell signal rendered with Coppock curve turning down and crossing second derivative. with first derivative cross over in place. MZM liquid money supply 9% growth rate now in jeopardy with dip to 8.5% with 'blue line money momentum breaking up trend which had affirmed bullish underpinning of stock market.

Market may now give recognition to steep down trend in money supply. ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.]

Decline now points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and

second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Engulfing continuation signal indicates bonds now likely to advance again. Daily Bonds - Piercing line candle formation establishes renewed up trend for bonds on verge of making new high. Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for declining stock market should bonds advance and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level

now continuing in sell mode. RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returned to buy mode from sell with bond market strengthening.

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - The first two impulse (up) waves of the new bull market are now seen to be in as waves 1 and 3, as is intermediate corrective wave 2. Intermediate Wave 4, an abc corrective, is now in play with the minor 'b' wave interpreted as extending with two retracements of which 'R1' is in as is R2 with required 2 waves evident. Accordingly, the 'B' wave is now complete.( Minute wave 2 (up) is read as a 3 step 'abc' corrective with 5th wave of 'c' now in) Minute C11_3 (dn) is now in play having broken down from within a symmetrical triangle via a minuette 5th wave 'thrust' which constitutes minute wave 1 of C11_3. which ought to proceed with 4 additional minute waves (up,dn,up,dn) with minute 2 in ( Having retraced 61.8% of October rally, a bounce as minute wave 2 did commence quickly. ) and now minute wave 3 is in play which may be composed of several minuette waves (possibly as many as 11) which would leave 2 more minute waves to follow in completion of minor wave 'C" (barring an extension) and hence Intermediate wave 4, an 'abc' corrective,
following which the bull market is expected to continue with its 3rd impulse wave up. Tom, Dec 16/11.

Upon eventual completion of 'Bull step 5' we will have completed the first cyclical wave of a new secular bull market.

Signpost: December 9/11, Expected [ Briefly: Last week a reversal of a further advance attempt seemed to be thwarted on Thursday (with 'would be' strength on Friday as a dismal low volume endorsement of the EU summit policy conclusion). When a stock breaks an up trend line it is not unusual for it to rally back up to the underside of the trend line (called a return move) before heading down in earnest to fulfill its intended downside destination. see Western Bar Chart and Short Term Daily Count for example of the return move we have just witnessed. My count of current Elliott Wave configuration calls for a down wave, an up wave and a final down wave. Since mid August the market has with volatile energy moved sideways with a modest upward bias which the Advance Decline Line is suggesting to me is now probably finished. It is not too early to begin reviewing purchase selections for when the coming 3 wave downside action is complete

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - New 'would be' up trend modestly intact now at resistance. Daily Candles, - Engulfing reversal challenged by Friday's (piercing line?) advance. Western Bar Chart Rally climbs to underside of broken trend line where advance would normally halt with resumption of down trend likely. Advance Decline Line - Fails to confirm recent high of market index to endorse 'return move' interpretation of market behaviour. Weekly Energy Medium term read now in sell zone. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term now in buy and hold zones. Weekly Momentum - New up trend from oversold level continues to strengthen. Daily Momentum - Upside reversal continues strength.

MZM liquid money supply 9% growth rate now in jeopardy with dip to 8.5% with 'blue line money momentum breaking up trend which had affirmed bullish underpinning of stock market. Market may now give recognition to steep down trend in money supply. ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline now points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Resistance prevails halting advance with candlestick reversal signal evident. Daily Bonds - Engulfing pattern confirms continued weakness. Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for rising stock market should bonds decline and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note continued weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now continues in sell mode. RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returned to sell mode from buy with bond market weakening.

as a 3 step 'abc' corrective with 5th wave of 'c' now in) Minute C11_3 (dn) is now in play having broken down from within a symetrical triangle via a minuette 5th wave 'thrust' which constitutes minute wave 1 of C11_3. which

ought to proceed with 4 additional minute waves (up,dn,up,dn) with minute 2 in? now leaving 3 additional waves to come, in completion of minor wave 'C"(barring an extension) and hence Intermediate wave 4, an 'abc' corrective, following which the bull market is expected to continue with its 3rd impulse wave up. Having retraced 61.8% of October rally, a bounce as minute wave 2 did commence quickly. Tom, Dec 9/11.

Upon eventual completion of 'Bull step 5' we will have completed the first cyclical wave of a new secular bull market. xvx

Signpost: December 2/11, Expected [ Briefly: Last week we had 3 rallies with sensational strength on Wednesday - followed by neutrality on Thursday & Friday suggesting strong resistance to further upside due to plenty of supply at current levels. When a stock breaks an up trend line it is not unusual for it to rally back up to the underside of the trend line (called a return move) before heading down in earnest to fulfill its intended downside destination. see Western Bar Chart and Short Term Daily Count for example of the return move we have just witnessed. My count of current Elliott Wave configuration calls for a down wave, an up wave and a final down wave. Since mid August the market has with volatile energy moved sideways with a modest upward bias which the Advance Decline Line is suggesting to me the consolidation is now probably finished. It is not too early to begin reviewing purchase selections for when the coming 3 wave downside action is complete

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Marubozu of Yang shows as strong bull candle engulfing prior week's Marubozu of Yin to render a buy signal indicating beginning of new up trend possible. Daily Candles, -Shooting Star indicates halt to up trend begun by prior Friday's Inverted Hammer. Western Bar Chart Rally climbs to underside of broken trend line where advance would normally halt with resumption of down trend very likely. Advance Decline Line - One third retracement of decline entering resistance and not convincing . Weekly Energy Both short and medium term hold in strong buy mode. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term now in buy and hold zones. Weekly Momentum - New up trend from oversold level gaining strength. Daily Momentum - Indicator turning up to render buy signal. MZM liquid money supply 9% growth rate now in jeopardy with 'blue line money momentum breaking up trend which had affirmed bullish underpinning of stock market. Market may now give recognition to steep down trend in money supply. ['Blue Line Money Momentum'

indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline now points to coming market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - Resistance prevails halting advance with possible candlestick reversal signal evident. Daily Bonds - Reversal attempt signaled to new down trend. Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for rising stock market should bonds decline and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now continues in sell mode. RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returned to sell mode from buy with bond market strength

weakening. ao0

Elliott Wave Watch:... Long Term Daily Count - The first two impulse (up) waves of the new bull market are now seen to be in as waves 1 and 3, as is intermediate corrective wave 2. Intermediate Wave 4, an abc corrective, is now in play with the minor 'b' wave interpreted as extending with two retracements of which 'R1' is in as is R2 with required 2 waves evident. Accordingly, the 'B' wave is now complete.( Minute wave 2
(up) is read as a 3 step 'abc' corrective with 5th wave of 'c' now appearing to be in) Minute C11_3 (dn) is now in play having broken down from within a symetrical triangle via a minuette 5th wave 'thrust' which constitutes minute wave 1 of C11_3. which ought to proceed with 4 additional minute waves (up,dn,up,dn) with minute 2 in? now leaving 3 additional waves to come, in completion of minor wave 'C"(barring an extension) and hence Intermediate wave 4, an 'abc' corrective, following which the bull market is expected to continue with its 3rd impulse wave up. Having retraced 61.8% of October rally, a bounce as minute wave 2 did commence quickly. Tom, Dec 2/11.

See Short Term Daily Count for graphic of the extended ' c ' wave now underway. Trend Sector Channels shows an alternate close up of recent action with its conclusion minor 'C' wave is now complete (which I distrust) and thus Intermediate corrective wave 4 is now complete. Observe Elliott Weekly Count: to show evolution of new bull market on a weekly basis with 'Bull step 5' now begun? with completion of the 'C' wave? .

Upon eventual completion of 'Bull step 5' we will have completed the first cyclical wave of a new secular bull market. xvx

Signpost: November 25/11, Expected [ Briefly: Indicators on balance regarded 'low volume' rally continuation as "suspect" (click on VOLUME to observe) and now such suspicion appears justified with topping out of rally and apparent entry into a declining mode which could result in a substantial correction which may or may not be 'tempered' upon entry into major Support Area built during summer/fall volatile congestion. By my Elliott Wave count, while seemingly complex, a clear 3 step 'upward counter trend ' correction (a b c) within a major market decline appears now to be complete with a symmetrical triangle seemingly initiating a fresh and final major down wave to be interrupted (?) by 2 short term upward "bounces" with the first bounce soon. Click on EW count to view. It is only when subsequent, and possibly severe, weakness completing the decline underway

that selective deployment of cash reserves for purchases may be considered. Downside support is now at 500 and subsequently 470 - or more favourably from within Support Area ]

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Marubozu of Yin shows as strong bear candle indicating down trend continues. Daily Candles, - Inverted hammer can signal reversal of down trend. Western Bar Chart Decline penetrates well into support area. Advance Decline Line - Declining trend confirms market decline indicating continued weakness to prevail. Weekly Energy Both short and medium term hold in strong buy mode. Daily Energy Both short term and medium term hold in sell mode. Weekly Momentum - Market weakness challenges new up trend from oversold level. Daily Momentum - Strong down trend continues in 'sell' mode. MZM liquid money supply Now holding 9% growth rate with 'blue line money momentum breaking up trend which had affirmed bullish underpinning of stock market. Market may now give recognition to steep down trend in money supply. ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has usually indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline now evident affirms developing market weakness. (MZM money supply still remains above 'zero' which is ultimately very bullish economically and for market as well.) Coppock Curve Monthly - First peak is in and second peak at month end now evident which signals 'bear market' by this indicator at least for the short term. Weekly Bonds - New bond up trend intact but at resistance level. Daily Bonds - Inside out Reversal pattern may signal short term weakness. Be aware of 'inverse relationship' that calls for rising stock market should bonds decline and vice versa. Click through 3 bond charts for clear perspective and note again inverse relationship of bond and stock indexes. Also, note weekly basis bond market ' Sell ' signal by Trailer-Cop Indicator with reversal from extreme 'overbought ' level now continues in sell mode. RS Trading Oscillator - Strength of this weekly measure now returned to sell mode from buy with bond market strength now displayed .

its normal 3 minute waves to complete the 2nd retracement. Minute C11-1 appears to have put in 2 minuette waves with a 3rd minuette to have concluded minute wave 1. Minute wave 2 (up) is read as a 3 step 'abc' corrective

with 5th wave of 'c' now appearing to be in with minute C11_3 (dn) now in play having broken down from within a symetrical triangle via a minuette 5th wave 'thrust' which continues as minute wave 1 of C11_3. which ought to proceed with 4 additional minute waves to come (up,dn,up,dn), in completion of minor wave 'C"(barring an extension) and hence Intermediate wave 4, an 'abc' corrective, following which the bull market is expected to
continue with its 3rd impulse wave up. Having retraced 61.8% of October rally, a small bounce as minute wave 2 could commence quickly. Tom, Nov 25/11.. xxhoo

Signpost: November 18/11, Expected [ Briefly: Indicators on balance have regarded 'low volume' rally continuation as "suspect" (click on VOLUME to observe) and now such suspicion appears justified with topping out of rally and apparent entry into a declining mode which could result in a substantial correction which may or may not be 'tempered' upon entry into major Support Area built during summer/fall volatile congestion. By my Elliott Wave count, while seemingly complex, a clear 3 step 'upward counter trend ' correction (a b c) within a major market decline appears now to be complete with a symmetrical triangle possibly initiating a fresh and final major down wave. Click on EW count to view. It is only when subsequent, and possibly severe, weakness completing an anticipated decline that selective deployment of cash reserves for purchases may be considered. Downside support is now at 500 and subsequently 470 - or more favourably from within Support Area ]

Beyond the Wave, look at....Weekly Candles - Dark Cloud Cover sell signal confirmed along with engulfing continuation affirmation. Daily Candles, - Engulfing Reversal sell signal confirmed. Western Bar Chart Breakdown from within Symmetrical triangle signals reversal. Advance Decline Line - Up trend broken to confirm market weakness. Weekly Energy Both short and medium term remain in strong buy mode.

Daily Energy Both short term and medium term now in sell mode. Weekly Momentum - Pause in strength from deeply oversold level now suggested. Daily Momentum - Strong down trend continues in 'sell' mode. MZM liquid money supply Now holding 9% growth rate with 'blue line money momentum breaking up trend which had affirmed bullish underpinning of stock market. Market may now give recognition to steep down trend in money supply ['Blue Line Money Momentum' indicator has indicated if stock market declines, possible duration may equal indicator's prior decline duration.] Decline now evident affirms developing market weakness.